Forecasters Warn that Hurricane Season Could Get Off to a Fast Start

The upcoming Memorial Day weekend is another reminder that the Atlantic hurricane season is knocking at the door. The official start of the season is Sunday, June 1. Forecasters have been submitting their predictions for the season for months, making tweaks along the way as more precise data is gathered. Here is the latest forecast for the season.

How 2025 Tropical Activity Might Compare to the Past Few Seasons

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been gearing up for the uptick in activity in the Atlantic basin as the season inches closer. Experts are warning that the conditions are becoming more conducive for rapid intensification events. As a result, meteorologists are warning that the 2025 season could end up being more devastating than the monster 2024 season.

The year 2024 will go down in history as one of the costliest seasons on record, both in terms of loss of human life and economic damages. The super-charged season kicked off with Beryl becoming the earliest Category 5 storm on record. Nobody will soon forget Hurricane Helene, a storm that came ashore as a Category 4 storm in the Big Bend region of Florida before dumping flooding rainfall across the Appalachians in western North Carolina. Helene was followed by Category 4 Milton less than two weeks later, making landfall in the same general area of Florida and producing dozens of fatal tornadoes.

Like 2024 and 2023, the waters in the Atlantic basin are trending above average for this point in the year. These waters are predicted to remain on the toasty side through the duration of the season, providing a fertile environment for tropical features to take root and grow.

The abnormally warm waters are also why forecasters are confident that rapid intensification will continue to be a problem this year. In addition to the warm sea-surface temperatures, the ocean heat content (OHC) levels are also expected to land well above the historical average. The OHC metric measures both the temperature of the water as well as how deep this warmth extends toward the bottom of the ocean floor. Deeper pools of warm water also serve as fuel for hurricanes.

The last few seasons have seen hurricanes go through the process of rapid intensification just prior to making landfall. For instance, Hurricane Ian evolved from a Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph to a massive Category 5 storm packing winds of 160 mph as it approached the Florida Gulf Coast. A storm that goes through this process in the hours before landfall means that residents are often caught off guard.

Experts will also be closely monitoring the water temperatures circulating near the equator of the eastern Pacific. This is the part of the world's oceans that is responsible for the creation of La Niña and El Niño. The current forecast models suggest that neither climate phase will be present during the start of the season. However, La Niña could take hold by September, potentially influencing tropical weather activity to trend higher.

Latest Predictions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Forecasters have been consistent in their predictions that the upcoming season will see tropical weather events reach near or slightly above the historical average of named features. This range means that the Atlantic basin should expect between 13 and 19 named storms. Of this range, 7 to 10 of the storms will go on to reach the status of an official hurricane. The U.S. is forecast to experience three to six direct impacts.

Meteorologists are also putting in their predictions for the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) figure for the year. This metric measures the cumulative intensity of each tropical feature throughout the season. Features that do not last long generate smaller ACE numbers, while more intense, long-lived hurricanes produce a high ACE figure.

Tropical weather experts are predicting a total ACE value for the year of 125 to 175. This is above the historical average over the last 30 years of 123.

The season could get off to a quick start in June as conditions are favorable for early-season development. Like last year, a break in the activity is likely during the middle of the season before the action fires up again in September. Keep in mind that the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic falls on September 10.

Where to Expect the Activity in the U.S.