Good Chance of La Niña Becoming Dominating Climate Phase This Winter

While the astronomical fall has not even kicked off yet, some climatologists are already looking ahead to winter to offer their predictions. Whether or not La Niña emerges will largely dictate how the winter season unfolds. Here is a look at what the long-range forecast is predicting about the chances of a return of the La Niña climate phase.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center Issues La Niña Watch

According to the latest report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is about a 53% chance that La Niña will become the dominant phase sometime between now and November. The odds are slightly higher that La Niña will emerge by the end of the year, coming in at a chance of 58%. These estimations were high enough to prompt NOAA to issue a La Niña watch.

Forecasters believe that the phase will linger through the winter season and significantly influence the overall weather pattern once it does emerge. The phase is then forecast to dissipate by the early spring months.

Why are forecasters keeping such a close eye on the development of La Nina? This climate pattern is distinguished by cooler-than-average ocean water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific. These cooler waters trigger changes in the upper levels of the atmosphere, driving weather patterns across the globe.

Forecasters watch for the emergence of either La Niña or its counterpart El Niño because they provide easy and predictable indications of what the long-range weather has in store. This is particularly true if either phase is strong. The presence of the phases demonstrates the most influence during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere, typically losing their grip on the weather during the other seasons.

The upcoming La Niña phase is showing signs that it will come in on the weaker end. This would limit its overall influence on the winter weather across the U.S.

How La Nina Could Impact the Winter Season

Should the NOAA predictions come to fruition, La Niña will build throughout the fall and into the early part of winter. This differs from last year, when the La Niña conditions did not arrive until much later in the season.

The expectation that La Niña will be a factor this year helps forecasters to provide a more accurate look at what Americans should expect for temperatures and precipitation levels in the months ahead. However, a weaker La Niña would allow other atmospheric elements to shake up the long-term forecast and deviate from what is typically expected when this phase is dominating.

La Niña generally influences the behavior of the jet stream. For example, this river of air typically moves farther to the north during a La Niña winter. This movement works to bring stormy conditions from the southern U.S. farther north.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that the months of December through February will be influenced by La Niña. This will translate to a drier-than-usual winter across the Southeast. Conversely, the northern tier of the country should prepare for more precipitation than a typical winter delivers.

However, do not expect all of the extra precipitation to fall as snow. Temperatures will need to be cold enough to support the development of the flakes rather than disruptive ice or freezing rain.