Gulf Coast and Texas at Risk of Tropical Downpours Into the Weekend

An influx of tropical moisture coming together in the Gulf will reach portions of Louisiana and Texas in the days ahead, translating to a soggy end to the week. Meanwhile, another area of tropical development in the Central Pacific will whip up winds across Hawaii. Read on for more details about what is happening in the tropics.

Louisiana and Texas in Crosshairs of Tropical Moisture

Parts of Texas will once again be under the threat of localized flash flooding as tropical downpours move to the west from Louisiana. A large area of clouds, rain showers, and thunderstorms will continue to move to the west across the northern Gulf. The movement of this cluster of rain and storms will send heavy rain into a zone from southern Louisiana and into Texas through the weekend.

While the window is closing on the chances of a named feature to develop, this area of activity will still be capable of producing heavy rain for those in its path. The tropical weather maker has already sent several inches of rain across much of Florida. For example, the college town of Gainesville, Florida, located in the middle of the state, recorded 3.58 inches of rain between Monday and Wednesday.

Moving into the Florida Panhandle, the capital city of Tallahassee measured 1.10 inches of precipitation on Wednesday evening alone. Almost an inch of rain fell across the Gulf Coast city of Biloxi, Mississippi.

Heading into Friday, the majority of the moisture will fall near and to the south of the busy Interstate 10 corridor stretching from northeastern Texas and into the Florida Panhandle. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches over a period of a few hours are possible in this zone.

Cities that should expect heavy rain capable of overwhelming drainage systems include New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Houston, and Corpus Christi. Gusty thunderstorms may also accompany some of the periods of torrential rain.

The latest forecast models indicate that most of the moisture coming along with this system will make a turn to the north when it reaches Louisiana and the northeastern corner of Texas. This will spare the flood-ravaged areas of central Texas from the worst of the rain. However, some of the rain showers could reach as far west as Austin and the Hill Country located to the west of San Antonio.

The turn to the north will put urban areas such as Shreveport and Monroe, Louisiana, in the line of fire over the weekend. Some small streams in the area could experience brief by minor rises.

Diving into the Local Forecasts

This is a good time to take a deep dive into some of the specific local forecasts for the impacted region. New Orleans is in store for a soggy Friday with regular rain showers and the potential of heavy rainfall. It will be a steamy day in the bayou with highs in the upper 80s and lows that bottom out at the 80-degree mark. Friday will feature breezy conditions with winds out of the south-southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

The threat of afternoon thunderstorms will persist in New Orleans on Saturday. Drier conditions and more sunshine on Sunday and Monday will bring the highs up into the low to mid 90s. The next chance of rain is on tap for Wednesday.

As noted earlier, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, will also get caught up in the crosshairs of this tropical weather machine. The city is bracing for scattered storms and heavy rainfall on both Friday and Saturday. The mercury will bounce around in the upper 80s during this time in Baton Rouge. Friday will be the breeziest day with winds coming in at 10 to 15 mph southeast.

Moving across the Texas border, Beaumont will see rain showers in the morning on Friday that intensify into scattered thunderstorms by the afternoon hours. Another batch of storms is in the forecast overnight and into early Saturday in Beaumont. Like the rest of the Gulf Coast, Sunday will bring a drier weather pattern. Tempeatures will inch up into the low 90s from the upper 80s to bring the weekend to a close.

Beachgoers in Corpus Christi, Texas, may want to make alternate plans on Saturday. The coastal town is expecting rain showers to start the day with the clouds lingering through the afternoon. The Saturday forecast in Corpus Christi is calling for highs of about 93 degrees, lows that dip into the upper 70s, and winds out of the south-southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Conditions will improve on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds and drier weather.

As the mass of tropical moisture turns to the north, places such as Shreveport, Louisiana, will likely see the impacts by Saturday. This city on the border of Texas is expecting partly cloudy skies with storms firing up in the afternoon. The temperatures will reach the 90-degree barrier before settling in the mid 70s after the sun goes down. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph.

Looking at the Rest of the Atlantic

The rest of the Atlantic basin remains quiet heading into the last week of July. Widespread areas of disruptive wind shear are pairing with dry and dusty air to put a lid on potential development. This is the time of the Atlantic hurricane season when the Saharan dust clouds tend to mitigate the odds of tropical development.

However, that is likely to change as the calendar flips from July to August. The typical tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa are already beginning to pack more moisture when compared to earlier in the summer. This characteristic is in line with what generally happens as ocean water temperatures begin to tick up and wind shear starts to lose its steam.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are currently monitoring a tropical wave that recently ejected out of Africa. While this feature has a low chance of development in the coming days, it will still raise the risk of rain showers for parts of the Lesser Antilles.

Heading Over to the Central Pacific

The Atlantic is not the only part of the world's oceans that is showing signs of tropical activity. The Pacific basin has been a hotbed of action early in the season.

A zone located to the southeast of the Hawaiian islands could take on tropical characteristics between July 28 and July 29. Although the Eastern Pacific has seen a number of named storms come to life this year, the central part of the basin has yet to see a formal storm develop. The first name up in the Central Pacific this year is Iona.

Residents in Hawaii are understandably worried about tropical features that usher in high winds to the island chain. It was just two years ago that the winds generated from Hurricane Dora spinning well away from the islands triggered the deadly wildfires that swept through Maui. The good news is that the current setup is not showing the same characteristics as Dora did in 2023.

That said, Hawaii should expect an increase in trade winds by the end of the month. Much of the islands are under the designation of drought conditions, meaning that any winds will raise the threat of brush fires. This will be an area of concern for local officials in the week ahead.

Lastly, another zone of potential development in the Eastern Pacific is under the close watch of forecasters. This area of rain showers and storms is spinning well off the coast of Central America and Mexico. It is not expected to pose any threat to major land masses. However, parts of the west coast of Mexico may see enhanced waves out of this tropical weather maker.

Weather changes fast — help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat.