Gulf Coast in Line of Fire for Surge of Tropical Moisture

Another round of tropical downpours is bearing down on the Gulf Coast in the days ahead as the tropics to the south continue to show signs of activity. Here is what you need to know about the timing and potential intensity of this tropical weather surge.

Forecasters Monitoring Area of Potential Tropical Development Near the Gulf Coast

A developing tropical rainstorm is being monitored for signs of future intensification as it moves to the west and into the Gulf. Forecasters are warning that this feature could evolve into a tropical depression by the weekend.

A large area of rain showers and thunderstorms will move from the southern Atlantic coastline and into the northern portion of the Gulf over the next few days. This is the zone that meteorologists have marked as an area for potential tropical development.

This is the time of the tropical weather season when fronts and storms that form in the middle layers of the atmosphere are most likely to serve as the seeds for development closer to the shore of the U.S. The southeastern coastline currently is home to both a storm and a front that could work together to lay the groundwork for tropical development.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been monitoring an area of thunderstorms that stretched along a frontal boundary from off the Carolina coast and over into the northeastern corner of the Gulf. Additionally, an area of clouds, showers, and thunderstorms was visible on satellite from the eastern coast of Florida and to the east into the northern Bahamas.

The latest forecast models indicate that this zone of activity will push to the west as the storm progresses. Meanwhile, thunderstorms will continue to fire up along the old frontal boundary. The merger of these systems could support the formation of a tropical depression. On the outside chance that the feature evolves into a named storm, it would be called Dexter.

Even in the absence of a named feature, the impacts of this tropical moisture will hit the Gulf Coast by the weekend. The Interstate 10 corridor will be in the bullseye of the effects.

The primary impact from this weather maker will be torrential rain that could trigger flash flooding along the upper Gulf Coast. Beachgoers will want to be aware of the threat of rough surf conditions and dangerous rip currents.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are a possibility with this storm. The high rainfall rates per hour will inevitably raise the risk of flash flooding. Other potential impacts for the Gulf Coast heading into the weekend include isolated tornadoes and waterspouts, strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning strikes.

The feature will have the greatest chance of intensification if it remains offshore and churning over the open waters of the Gulf. The risk of future development will be lower if the center of circulation roams near the northern Gulf Coast as it continues its track to the west this weekend. This is because tropical features get their fuel from warm ocean waters.

There is also a good chance that some of the storm cells will travel as far as the eastern and central portions of Texas in the coming days. This is a part of the country that is in the middle of the building heat dome.

The moisture associated with the tropical weather system would provide a small degree of relief from the heat as it moves to the north and into the Mississippi Valley. Some of the moisture could also expand as far as the Ohio Valley, amplifying the downpours and storms expected to form along the northern periphery of the heat dome.

Specific Local Forecasts

While it is challenging to pinpoint with certainty at this early juncture, it is looking like the most unsettled day of weather for New Orleans will happen on Saturday. The Big Easy is bracing for widespread storms to start the weekend. Highs will hover in the upper 80s before falling into the upper 70s overnight. Storms will become more sporadic on Sunday, indicative of a more typical summer weather pattern for the bayou.

New Orleans will dry out as the new work week kicks off with mostly sunny skies on tap. However, that dry weather pattern will also usher in warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast to hover in the low to mid 90s on Monday and Tuesday.

As noted earlier, the storms will also encroach on the Texas Gulf Coast. Beaumont is expecting the stormiest weather on Friday. The threat of scattered storms will persist through the weekend in Beaumont. The forecast is calling for highs in the upper 80s and low 90s during this time. Like the rest of the region, a building area of high pressure will translate to sunny skies and highs that creep upwards beginning on Monday.

Elsewhere in the Tropics

Looking at the rest of the Atlantic basin, the NHC is also monitoring an area of rain showers and gusty storms that is expected to move across the Leeward and Windward islands. This tropical wave got its start off the coast of Africa earlier in the week.

Forecasters believe that a mass of dry and dusty air will pair with increasing amounts of wind shear to mitigate the odds of future development within this area of low pressure. This means that the zone from the Caribbean and to the central and southwestern Atlantic Ocean will be spared the impacts. The U.S. is not expected to see any impacts from this area of concern.

While this part of the basin has been quiet thus far in the season, these prohibitive areas of dusty air and wind shear tend to dissipate as the summer progresses. This is why the NHC will continue to monitor this part of the Atlantic as the season inches toward the peak of activity in August and September.

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