High Risk of Derecho Across the Central U.S. to Start the Work Week

Forecasters are growing more concerned that a potentially dangerous derecho could roar across parts of the central U.S. by the end of the day Monday. Here is a look at what is on tap for the rest of the day, as well as what is lurking in the days to come.

Derecho Risk on the Table for Late Monday

The conditions are ripe for a derecho to come together and unleash widespread damage across the nation's heartland. The most concerning impact of this weather pattern will be the high winds, possibly exceeding 100 mph if a derecho comes to life.

Monday is setting up to be a story day for parts of the Plains and the Midwest. The daily rounds of storms will persist throughout the week, eventually creeping into the Northeast. While every day this week is likely to feature some degree of storm activity, Monday is shaping up to be particularly worrisome. Several states could see the impacts of a powerful derecho should the atmospheric conditions line up right in the hours to come.

The pairing of extreme temperatures over the southern U.S. and the infusion of moisture in the atmosphere will lay the groundwork for potent storms to develop along the northern edge of the stubborn heat dome. A cold front is currently moving to the east and the south from the northern Rockies. This front will merge with the heat ahead of it to create increasingly unstable conditions in the atmosphere. The result will be the ignition of thunderstorms.

The National Weather Service (NWS) defines a derecho as a long-lived storm complex that stays on the ground for more than 240 miles. The event is classified as a derecho if the storms contain winds that hits at least 50 mph.

The storms are forecast to form across Montana and the Dakotas on Monday afternoon. A high risk of severe weather has been issued in a zone from eastern South Dakota and to the east into southwestern Montana and the northwestern corner of Iowa.

The strong winds expected with this weather maker will be capable of causing widespread property damage. Significant crop damage could also be a concern across the country's Corn Belt region. This is the time of the growing season when corn crops are highly susceptible to damage at the hands of Mother Nature. Other potential impacts of these storm cells include heavy rain that triggers flash flooding, large hail, and isolated tornadic activity.

The forest models indicate that the storm complex could survive the overnight hours and impact morning commutes across a number of major urban areas on Tuesday. Cities that should keep an eye on the hourly forecast heading into the morning hours include Indianapolis and Chicago.

Tuesday's and Wednesday's Forecast Calls for More of the Same

While Monday is likely to bring the worst of the weather of the week, the next few days will also be no picnic. Tuesday's storms are forecast to fire up in Wyoming before expanding to the east into western Iowa and Missouri. The storms will ride along the advancing frontal boundary, most likely to hit during the latter part of the day and night on Tuesday.

Once again, localized damaging winds, torrential rain, and hail will be the greatest threats. This is a good time to enable all smartphone weather notifications.

The front is predicted to continue its track to the east and south on Wednesday. As it moves along in this direction, you can expect temperatures to take a noticeable nosedive. However, the relief from the heat will also come with an increased risk of severe storms in areas farther to the east and the south.

Although storms will continue to menace the northern Rockies, the northern Plains, and the Midwest, the risk will also begin to expand into the Ohio Valley and up through New England. The Plains states will be under the gun for large hail by the middle of the week.

Thursday's forecast is calling for the storms to encroach farther to the east, potentially reaching the mid-Atlantic. The cluster of activity will also move to the south at this time, bringing the Carolinas into the potential impact zone.

Places such as Richmond, Virginia, will see the storms develop during the afternoon hours, persisting under the cover of darkness. It will be a hot and humid day with highs of about 90 degrees. Overnight lows will slide to about 72 degrees in the capital city.

Moving farther to the south, you will find a similar forecast in Raleigh, North Carolina. The mercury will climb into the low 90s during the peak afternoon heating hours, supporting the development of storms at this time. The stormy conditions will linger into the evening and overnight hours. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid 70s after the sun goes down.

The line of storms will sneak as far south as Charleston, South Carolina, on Thursday. The coastal community should expect the chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. It will be another steamy day with highs of about 95 degrees and lows that struggle to fall below the 80-degree barrier. Winds will be whipping around from the south-southwest at speeds of 10 to 15 mph.

The back of the week will see the primary risks shift from high winds to flash flooding. This will be particularly true in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Check back often for more updates on this developing situation.

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