How a Cooler Zone in the Atlantic May Impact the 2025 Hurricane Season

The start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is less than a month away. Here is an update on what is happening in the tropics as the official start date of June 1 approaches.

Portion of Atlantic Ocean Not Warming as Quickly as Normal

A large swath of the eastern Atlantic Ocean is not heating up as quickly as it normally does. But how will this impact the odds of tropical development this year? Scientists routinely keep a close eye on the rate of warming throughout various parts of the Atlantic basin to make their predictions about tropical weather formation. While this part of the Atlantic is not keeping pace with its typical rate of warming by early May, it is still running warmer than average.

What is standing out to hurricane experts is that the water temperatures are not trending as high above average as they were in April. The water temperatures in this area are also not as toasty as they were last year at this same time.

While this discrepancy does indicate that things are not progressing as normally as they usually are by early May, it is important to note that this far eastern area of the Atlantic does not influence tropical weather during the pre-season. Most early-season activity tends to come together closer to the coastline of the U.S. in the western Atlantic, the western portions of the Caribbean, and the Gulf. Forecasters note that the eastern Atlantic does not generally serve as the birth point for tropical weather features until much later in the season.

As the early season features ramp up in the western half of the Atlantic, the tropical waves that originate off of the coast of Africa are just getting started. These waves serve as the initial seeds for tropical weather events that move to the west across the Atlantic basin. However, these seeds often fall apart quickly in June and July due to a number of other prohibitive factors.

During a typical year, the water temperatures reach supportive levels in July and August in the area between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. This is when you can expect more activity to ignite and strengthen in this part of the basin.

What the slowdown of the temperature increase in the eastern Atlantic could mean is that the heart of the hurricane season could be delayed. The end result could be a slightly lower number of overall tropical weather features for the season.

What to Expect in 2025

Hurricane experts will continue to monitor these water temperatures and update their forecast for the season accordingly. As of now, forecasters are aligned in their predictions that the 2025 season will produce a slightly higher number of named events. For instance, the latest update from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 predicts 19 named storms to come to life in 2025. Of these 19, nine are expected to become hurricanes, with four of these reaching the strength of a Category 3 or higher.

Meteorologists also detail that water temperatures are not the only factor at play when forecasting the number of storms expected this year. The presence of dry and dusty air, wind shear, and the emergence of El Niño or La Niña also impact the overall intensity and activity of a hurricane season.

Imelda Back on the List of Names for 2025

In other trending hurricane news as the season gets ready to kick off, some people are wondering why the name Imelda has not been retired. This name is back on the list of possible names for the 2025 season.

It was recently announced that the names Beryl, Helene, and Milton have been retired from the cycle. All three of these storms generated catastrophic damage and loss of life in 2024, meeting the criteria to have their names taken off of the list of potential monikers going forward. The three new names replacing the latest retirees are Brianna, Holly, and Miguel, going into effect for the 2030 season.

Names for storms in the Atlantic basin repeat every six years unless they are retired. One name back on the 2025 list could have been retired after it was used in 2019. But what kept the name still in the rotation?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is in charge of maintaining the list. Storms that prove to be so deadly or destructive that their future use could be insensitive to victims are retired and replaced with new names. There have been 99 names retired since the process of naming storms began in 1953. Examples of names that have been retired throughout the years include Ian, Katrina, Maria, and Sandy.

The WMO recently released the full list of potential names for the 2025 season. What is curious to some tropical weather followers is that Imelda is still on the list. Tropical Storm Imelda formed off the upper Texas coast in September 2019, roaring inland and slowing down as it churned across parts of Texas and Louisiana.

More than 30 inches of rain fall across northern Houston and to the east into Liberty, Chambers, Jefferson, and Orange Counties in the Lone Star State. The highest rainfall total was clocked at 44.29 inches near the community of Fannett. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), this made Imelda the fifth wettest tropical cyclone as measured by peak rainfall to hit the continental U.S.

The final report from the NHC confirmed that about 8,200 homes were flooded in Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, and Jefferson Counties. Officials had to launch hundreds of water rescues to help stranded residents. The total economic damage came in at $6.2 billion in today's dollars.

Reasons Why Imelda Was Not Retired

All of this begs the question - why was the name Imelda not retired? The primary reason was that only five deaths were blamed on Imelda. Although any loss of life is tragic, this number is relatively low when compared to other storm names that have been retired.

The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic were also at play in this situation. The WMO committee meeting scheduled for the spring of 2020 was cancelled due to the pandemic. Instead, the discussions of what names to retire from the 2019 season were pushed back to an online meeting scheduled for the spring of 2021. This meeting happened after a super active 2020 season, overshadowing the recollections of Imelda back in 2019.

There was only one storm retired from the 2019 season. That distinction belonged to Hurricane Dorian. This Category 5 monster stalled over the Bahamas for days, inflicting massive amounts of damage. Dorian hit less than three weeks before Imelda formed, overshadowing the impacts of Imelda.

Imelda was also overshadowed by Harvey. This storm hit the same general area as Imelda two years before, persisting for much longer and making Imelda's impacts look significantly weaker in comparison. For reference, Harvey was responsible for $161.3 billion in economic damages, roughly 26 times that of Imelda. Harvey also killed 68 people in Texas, the most of any tropical weather event in the state since 1919.

Another interesting fact is that storms beginning with the letter "I" lead the list of retired names. This is because storms that carry these names tend to form during the peak of the tropical weather season, naturally leading to stronger and more destructive events. For example, although Imelda was not retired, the "I" names of Ida and Ian were recently put out of use.

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