How a Weakening La Niña Will Influence the Weather for First 3 Months of 2026

La Niña has been the driving force behind much of the nation's weather patterns over the last few months. How long will this climate phase influence the overall weather, and what can you expect for temperature trends for the first three months of the year? Read on for all of the details.

What is Next for La Niña?

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting that La Niña will hang on for the first few months of the year. However, the CPC is forecasting a transition to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral beginning in February. This means that while the climate phase will contiue to drive the weather patterns for the next several weeks, it will slowly begin to lose its grip in the new year.

The ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin to show up early in the year, completing the full transition away from La Niña by March 2026. The presence of an ENSO neutral phase generally makes it more challenging for forecasters to predict long-range temperature and precipitation patterns accurately.

In contrast, it is easier for forecasters to anticipate widespread trends when La Niña or El Niño is in charge. Each of these different phases corresponds to water temperature readings in the tropical Pacific. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average water temperatures, while La Niña is in place when these readings are trending cooler than the norm. The changes in the overall water temperatures in this part of the world's oceans guide the atmospheric circulation patterns that influence the weather across the globe.