Hurricane Experts Busy as the Atlantic Tropics Heat Up

The impacts of Hurricane Erin are moving away from the U.S. However, experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are continuing to monitor several areas of tropical weather springing to life in the Atlantic basin. Here is the latest on this developing situation as hurricane season inches towards its climactic peak of activity.

Tropics Alive with Activity in the Wake of Erin

Forecasters with the NHC are warning that at least two areas of potential tropical weather development could impact land in the coming days. The next name up for the Atlantic basin list of storms is Fernand.

An area of gusty winds and persistent rain is coming together in the northern Leeward Islands to close out the week. Even if this feature does not take on formal tropical characteristics, it will bring inclement conditions to this part of the Atlantic. This is the same general area that Erin came together last week, unleashing heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and power outages for some of this group of islands.

Erin quickly intensified into a Category 5 monster as it churned through these exceptionally warm waters on its way through the Caribbean. The feature progressed from a tropical storm to a massive Category 5 hurricane in a period of just over 24 hours.

Interests near Bermuda will want to keep a close eye on this feature as it could also go through the process of rapid intensification at some point this weekend. This feature is not likely to deliver impacts to the mainland U.S. This is because the latest forecast models indicate that it will make a turn to the north faster than Erin did, taking it away from the U.S. coastline in the process.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, More Danger Lurks

The feature showing signs of development in the northern Leewards is not the only area of concern in the Atlantic. Moving several hundred miles to the east-southeast, a new tropical wave is showing signs of greater organization.

This wave is tracking to the west through the part of the Atlantic that typically proves fertile for further intensification during this time of the year. However, this cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms will only have a short window of time to develop before it meets up with disruptive conditions over the weekend.

Lastly, a third zone of activity is producing showers over the central Atlantic. This zone has a low chance of taking on defined tropical characteristics in the coming days.

Meteorologists are noting that this is the time of the tropical weather season that typically generates tropical waves of low pressure coming off the coast of Africa. That said, the current atmospheric conditions are not conducive to widespread eruptions of tropical weather. That could change in the coming weeks as the Atlantic hurricane season reaches its historical peak of activity by the middle of September.

The long-range forecast is calling for activity to pick up again heading into the new month. This would follow the pattern set last year when the end of August was quiet; however, the action in the tropics fired up again by early September.

Forecasters are still predicting an additional 8 to 13 named storms to ignite by the time that the Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end. The official end to the season is November 30. The takeaway is that this is not the time to let down your guard, especially if you live in an area that is prone to tropical weather. The season is far from over.

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