Is the Northeast Long Overdue for a Hurricane?

Decades Without a Direct Hit May Be Misleading

It’s been more than three decades since a true hurricane made landfall in the Northeast—and over 70 years since a major one did. While Florida and the Gulf Coast take frequent hits, New England has largely escaped recent direct strikes. But history, science, and several close calls suggest the region is due.

Meteorologists estimate the odds of a major hurricane hitting the Northeast at about 1.5% in any given year—the same chance as flipping a coin and getting the same result six times in a row. While that may sound small, history shows it’s only a matter of time.

A History Written in Storm Surges and Destruction

The Northeast has faced powerful hurricanes before. Hurricane Bob struck Rhode Island in August 1991 with winds topping 100 mph, causing billions in damage. Sandy’s 2012 landfall in New Jersey brought blizzard conditions inland and widespread coastal devastation.