Latest Update on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions

A major weather forecasting agency has updated its predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. What are the experts saying that this basin should expect as the season rolls along? Read on for the latest long-range tropical weather forecast.

Hurricane Forecast Revised Downward

Colorado State University (CSU) revised its outlook for the current Atlantic hurricane season this week. While the leading forecasting agency lowered its expectations for the season as a whole, the projected number of named features remains slightly above the average.

The team of hurricane experts at CSU is now predicting 16 total storms for the entirety of the season that runs from June 1 to November 30. Of these 16 predicted storms, eight are forecast to go on to become hurricanes. Of the eight hurricanes, four are predicted to take on the status of a major hurricane, defined as Category 3 or higher by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The team reduced the number of expected tropical storms and hurricanes by one each when compared to the outlook that was released last month.

The updated outlook is still slightly above the 30-year historical average for both tropical storms and hurricanes. The predictions are also in line with the numbers recorded during the 2024 season. Last year saw 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Why is the season trending downward? The most significant driver of the lower-than-expected amount of tropical activity is the high amount of wind shear still circulating across the Atlantic. The wind shear has been the most persistent in the Caribbean, averaging 15 to 20 knots above normal in this part of the basin since the beginning of June.

The Caribbean is generally a place where the early-season storms come to life, thanks to the warmer-than-average ocean water temperatures. Strong wind shear in this zone is working to rip apart budding thunderstorms, putting a lid on potential tropical development.

The latest outlook for CSU points out that wind shear is forecast to remain above the norm in July. However, decreasing amounts of disruptive winds in August could support an uptick in tropical weather heading into the peak of the hurricane season.

Impacts of ENSO Neutral Conditions on the Development of Tropical Weather

Hurricane experts are also pointing to the emergence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions as a reason for the slip in the number of predicted storms. A neutral phase means that water temperatures are hovering around the average in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Significantly warmer or cooler ocean water readings are a bigger driver of tropical weather on either end of the spectrum.

Forecasters had been certain of a more active than average season due to the warmer sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central portions of the Atlantic. Warmer water temperatures serve to fuel and support the thunderstorms that are the building blocks of future tropical features. Because the water temperatures are not registering as warm as usual, the outlook has been revised downward.

Despite the change in the outlook, it is important to note that conditions can change on a dime. All it takes is one tropical storm to take root and grow to cause mass destruction.

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