Latest Updates Predict Erin Will Become Major Hurricane in Days Ahead

Erin is still on pace to reach the strength of a Category 3 hurricane when it reaches the exceptionally warm waters of the Caribbean. Will Erin impact the U.S.? Here is what the latest forecast models are telling us.

Latest Predictions on Tropical Storm Erin

As of the Thursday morning update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Erin was packing maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, inching it closer to the designation of a hurricane. Erin is still moving to the west at a speed of 17 mph.

The NHC is predicting that the U.S. will avoid a direct strike on the U.S.; however, the coastline will still see the impacts from Erin in the form of rain from the outer bands, windy conditions, coastal flooding, and rough surf conditions. The path is likely to also bring impacts to Bermuda.

Erin is predicted to intensify as it moves to the north of the Leeward Islands, located in the northeastern corner of the Caribbean. This intensification will happen over the next few days. The current environmental conditions to the north of the Lesser Antilles are proving to be conducive for future development, leading forecasters to warn that Erin is likely to become a Category 3 storm over the weekend.

The speed at which Erin makes its expected turn to the north will influence how closely the storm approaches the U.S. coastline and Bermuda. Residents and tourists along the East Coast, in Bermuda, and throughout the Bahamas will want to stay on top of the path of this storm.

The current spaghetti models paint a complicated picture. The most likely track will take Erin a few hundred miles off the Atlantic Seaboard. Forecasters are also warning that the extension of the Bermuda High to the west, paired with the arrival of a cold front over the eastern U.S., could pave the way for Erin to move closer to the U.S. These factors will be something that meteorologists watch closely over the next few days.

There is also still an outside chance that Erin could be pushed directly into the U.S. This worst-case scenario would translate to powerful winds, torrential rainfall, and powerful storm surge.

Regardless of whether Erin comes ashore in the U.S., the East Coast should prepare for rough seas and deep swells. The feature is anticipated to grow in size as it strengthens. This means that its outer bands will reach well out from the center of the storm. Those hoping to catch time at the beach as summer comes to an end will need to be aware of the threat of dangerous rip currents generated by Erin.

Lastly, the increase in wave activity will also raise the risk of coastal flooding during times of high tide and minor beach erosion. The Outer Banks of North Carolina will want to be particularly mindful of these threats over the weekend and into early next week.

Potential Impacts to Bermuda and Atlantic Canada

Bermuda will be in the line of fire should Erin track farther to the east. It may feel like deja vu for Bermuda, a part of the basin that saw a direct strike by Hurricane Ernesto last year.

The good news for Bermuda, when compared to other islands of the Caribbean, is that this region tends to fare better during times of tropical weather. The strict building codes across these islands help to minimize the impacts.

The latest models show Erin passing just to the west of Bermuda early next week. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected, with wind speeds potentially cracking the century mark.

Thousands of miles to the north, Erin could also impact Atlantic Canada. Rough seas will be an issue late next week in the waters surrounding Nova Scotia and up to Newfoundland.

Forecasters are also closely monitoring other areas of the Atlantic basin for signs of future tropical development. Tropical waves are beginning to move off the coast of Africa with greater frequency as the season nears its climatological peak in September.

As Erin moved through the eastern portion of the Atlantic, she was able to break apart the pervasive dry and dusty air that had previously put a lid on tropical development. This means that any waves ejecting out of Africa in the near future will find more fertile conditions to take root and grow. Stay tuned for more information.

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