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Hurricane Season

Looking at the Tropical Weather Forecast for Late June

3 weeks ago

After a burst of tropical activity last week, things have quieted down in the Atlantic basin heading into the end of the month. Will the period of tranquility continue or is there more tropical weather on the verge of exploding? Here is a look at what forecasters are keeping an eye on in the coming days.

Will Calm End to June Continue in the Tropics?

It is not unusual for late June to be a time of calm in the Atlantic basin. However, hurricane experts are warning that there is still a chance for a tropical feature to spin up as the calendar flips from June to July.

A large area of dry air and wind shear will combine with a growing cloud of dust rolling off of the Sahara Desert in Africa to mitigate the chances of widespread tropical development during the early part of July. How do these factors work to prevent tropical weather? Drier air prevents clouds from coming together and growing into thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the stiff ocean breezes known as wind shear also serve to block tropical storm formation.

Lastly, the dust coming from the Sahara blocks the sun's rays, bringing down temperatures and limiting tropical development. The Saharan dust clouds are quite frequent in July and August in the Atlantic basin. For instance, forecasters have noticed cooler waters in the area between the Lesser Antilles and Cabo Verde over the last week due to the presence of these dust clouds. In addition to suppressing the temperatures, the clouds also break apart storm clouds as another preventative measure.

What Hurricane Experts Are Watching

Despite all of these mitigating factors hindering tropical development, forecasters believe that there is still the chance that a home grown storm could form off the coast of the U.S. In addition, meteorologists are also watching another potential feature moving closer to the Caribbean.


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