National Hurricane Center Eyeing Tropical Wave Out of Africa

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now officially monitoring a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the coast of Africa by the end of the week and potentially develop into the next named storm of the season. Read on for more details about what the NHC is eyeing next.

Peak Date of Hurricane Activity Passes with No Action - That Could Change Soon

Hurricane watchers have had an easy job as of late, as the Atlantic basin remains eerily quiet. Wednesday marked the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. However, there has not been a named feature in this part of the world's oceans in weeks.

The period of tranquility may be coming to an end as the basin is showing signs of more favorable conditions for tropical weather development. The NHC is keeping an eye on the latest tropical wave, predicted to eject into the Atlantic off the west coast of Africa by the end of the week.

The models are unclear about whether the wave will evolve into a tropical depression or storm. While the waters in this part of the Atlantic are sufficiently warm to support development, the feature may also encounter areas of dry air and wind shear that would mitigate its further intensification.

The wave is entering a part of the Atlantic known in meteorological circles as the "main development region." Disturbances that originate in this area of the basin frequently turn into named storms as they feed on the warm ocean waters. However, it is a long journey across the Atlantic with a load of potential roadblocks.

Forecasters have assigned this wave a near-zero chance of taking on formal tropical characteristics within the next 48 hours. These odds jump to 20% within the next week.

The immediate focus is on the tropical wave moving off Africa this week. Potential development could occur over the weekend into early next week. The wave is forecast to move to the west or the west-northwest at a speed of 10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into the early part of next week.