New Predictions for the Tropics as Period of Inactivity Persists

Hurricane experts are adjusting their expectations for the Atlantic tropical weather season downward, following a lengthy lull in the action. Here is what meteorologists believe the Atlantic hurricane season has left in the back half.

Forecasters Predict Less Tropical Weather Activity

It has been two weeks since a named storm has roamed the Atlantic basin. This break in the action is even more unexpected when you consider that this is typically the time of the season when multiple features are churning through the basin. The inactivity has prompted several forecasting agencies to revise the predictions for the number of named storms to come out of the season.

There are a number of factors that are driving the reprieve in tropical weather events. An influx of dry air, excessive dust coming off the Sahara Desert, and disruptive wind shear have all combined to put a lid on development. Additionally, cooler water temperatures just off the western coast of Africa have made it more difficult for tropical waves to stay alive as they eject off the continent and into the eastern Atlantic.

Meteorologists are now predicting 13 to 16 named storms to form by the end of the season. The official Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30. Of these storms, six to nine are forecast to become hurricanes. This is slightly less than the number of storms predicted at the start of the season.

While there are fewer storms expected to ignite throughout the entirety of the Atlantic, the U.S. should still prepare for the same degree of impact. Forecasters are still aligned in their predictions that six storms will either make landfall in the U.S. or come close enough to the shoreline to cause significant impacts by the time that the season wraps up.

So far, there have been two storms to impact the U.S. Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in South Carolina in July, unleashing heavy rain across the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic. Just a few weeks ago, Hurricane Erin skirted the Atlantic coastline but did not come ashore.

Although all has been quiet in the basin as of late, forecasters warn that the worst could be yet to come. History has clearly demonstrated over the years that some of the most destructive storms have formed during the second half of the season. Last year's Helene and Milton both came together after the climatological peak date of September 10.

It is also important to remember that it just takes one storm to create catastrophic damage that will set a community back for years.