New Tropical Event Likely This Week in the Atlantic

The Atlantic basin has settled down since the surge of activity last week, a time when two hurricanes roamed the region in close proximity to each other. While all is quiet right now, forecasters are warning that the action is likely to fire up again in the days ahead. Here is a look at what forecasters are monitoring in the basin heading into the next week.

New Area of Concern in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping tabs on a few areas of potential tropical development this week. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30, meaning that history tells us that there is still plenty of time for new storms to develop and target the U.S. The NHC recently highlighted a zone off of the coast of Africa and into the Caribbean as being a likely area of new development this week. The agency has designated this feature as Invest 95L.

A tropical wave originating in Africa is currently traversing the Atlantic, a process that will take several days. How this wave interacts with a secondary disturbance in the eastern Atlantic will determine if the U.S. and the Caribbean see any impacts. Although ocean water temperatures are sufficiently warm to support strengthening, this feature is not expected to go through the process of rapid intensification anytime soon.

The NHC has assigned this disturbance a medium chance of turning into a tropical depression by the end of the week. The likely area of development would be just east of the Lesser Antilles. Should this storm take on tropical characteristics, it would go by the name of Jerry.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) confirms the NHC prediction that the system will organize into a tropical depression when it approaches the Caribbean. However, the Euro forecast does not have the same confidence that the system will intensify. Instead, the Euro models indicate that the system will simply generate periods of increased clouds and scattered rain showers when crossing the Caribbean.  

It is not unusual for the two major forecast models to spit out different models during the early stages of a tropical weather event. Forecasters will continue to monitor both models over the next few days to find consistencies.  Despite the U.S. federal government shutting down last week, essential staff with the NHC will contiue to perform their forecasting duties with disruptions.

The system in question will have a higher chance of surviving the journey across the Atlantic if it moves closer to the warm waters near the equator. Conversely, a track farther to the north will limit its chances of intensification.

Invest 95L is still days away from impacting any land masses. Interests in the Caribbean will want to stay alert about its potential progress as it moves to the west across the Atlantic.

You also cannot rule out the chance of impacts to Bermuda. This group of islands sustained strikes by Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda last week. A more northerly turn out of this feature would take it toward Bermuda by the end of the week.

No Current Tropical Threats Near Florida and the Gulf Coast

Last week, meteorologists had been concerned about the possibility of a threat coming to life near the coast of Florida or in the Gulf. However, the NHC has now deemed these areas of low pressure as no credible threat to the U.S. mainland.

While no defined tropical impacts are expected, the weak zone of low pressure spinning near the northwestern Bahamas is generating clusters of showers and thunderstorms.  This disturbance is forecast to affect Florida in the days ahead with heavy rain that could raise the threat of flash flooding along the eastern coastline.

The southeastern U.S. could also tap into some of this moisture early in the week. The timing of the predicted king tides along the coastline of the Southeast will amplify the threat of localized and tidal flooding and rough surf conditions. Cities such as Jacksonville, Savannah, and Charleston will be in the bullseye for this surge of moisture.

The NHC is also detailing a second area of low pressure churning off the Gulf Coast. Like the disturbance approaching Florida, this feature will simply generate garden-variety rain showers and thunderstorms. The weather maker is expected to creep to the northwest, reaching the Texas coastline on Monday. Strong upper-level winds will hinder the development of a defined tropical system.

The months of October and November typically produce about four named storms. Of this number, two generally go on to reach hurricane strength.

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