New Tropical Feature Could Emerge Near the Southeastern U.S.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring an area near the coast of the Southeast for signs of tropical weather development. This is the same general area where last week's Tropical Storm Chantal came to life. Here is a closer look at the anticipated timing and track of this potential tropical weather feature.

More Tropical Activity a Possibility in the Gulf or the Waters Off the Southeastern U.S.

A new tropical threat could come together off the coastline of the southeastern U.S. It may feel like deja vu to residents in this part of the Atlantic. Similar to what happened in early July, the conditions are ripe for a tropical feature to come together as a homegrown system.

This is the time of the Atlantic hurricane season when tropical weather systems are more likely to form near Central America, in the Caribbean, and in the ocean waters located off the coast of the Southeast. This can be blamed on the exceptionally warm ocean waters located in this part of the basin.

Tropical Storm Chantal sprang to life in response to a front that stalled out in the Southeast, which paired with a small dip in the jet stream. The feature became an official tropical depression on the Fourth of July, quickly becoming a tropical storm over the weekend before making landfall near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina, early Sunday morning. The storm unleashed flooding rainfall over a large swath of the Carolinas as it moved ashore.

The short-term forecast is calling for quiet conditions in the Atlantic over the next few days. However, the same area of the southern Atlantic that gave birth to Chantal could see more tropical action between the dates of July 15 and July 18. There is also the chance that the next tropical event could form over the northeastern corner of the Gulf.

The latest forecast models are indicating that the arrival of a front could once again partner with a dip in the jet stream to support the development of tropical weather at this time. While these two atmospheric elements are not as supportive as what happened when Chantal was born, the amount of wind shear in the region could be lighter.

Potential Track of Next Tropical Weather Maker

Any tropical development that happens on the Atlantic side of the Florida peninsula could track to the north and up the coastline of the U.S. Tropical weather that forms on the Gulf side of the Sunshine State would strike the northern portion of the Gulf Coast. At this early juncture, the models suggest the latter situation due to the steering breezes expected to be in place.

Even if a named tropical feature does not come to fruition in the next week, the general impact zone should be prepared for significant rain, winds, and rough surf conditions. Dexter is the next name up on the list for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

The NHC does not believe that any tropical development is likely in areas to the south and over to the western coastline of Africa. Large areas of dry and dusty air continue to filter off of the Sahara Desert and across the Atlantic, mitigating the chance of tropical development. Wind shear also remains high in this part of the basin.

The current Atlantic hurricane season is trending about one month ahead of the historical average by this time of the year. There are three named storms already in the record books. The third named feature of the season generally does not form until early August. All of the features have stopped short of becoming a hurricane. The average first date for a hurricane in the Atlantic is August 11. The first major hurricane of the season, defined as Category 3 or higher, typically forms at the beginning of September.

The long-range forecast is still predicting between 13 to 18 tropical storms to form in the Atlantic this year. Of this number, seven to 10 are predicted to intensify into hurricanes.

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