NOAA Officially Declares Arrival of El Nino - Now What?

It is now official. The latest report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed the arrival of El Niño. New forecasting tools suggest that the climate phase will intensify in the months ahead, significantly impacting rainfall totals, temperatures, and tropical weather trends around the world. Here is what you need to know.

El Niño Could Become One of the Strongest Ever

El Niño is here, and it could be more powerful than ever. According to a monthly discussion published on Thursday by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), El Niño has officially been declared in the equatorial Pacific. The climate phase is official when water temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator warm to more than 0.5 degrees Celsius above average readings. The CPC also noted that the circulation of winds and the pattern of rain showers and storms over this zone are indicative of the onset of El Niño conditions.

El Niño phases drive the weather patterns around the world an average of once every three to four years. Going back to 1950, there have been 27 confirmed El Niño periods. The last El Niño ignited during the summer of 2023 and persisted into the early spring months the following year.

While El Niño typically develops in the spring, this one was slower to take root. It was just last March that temperatures were firmly in La Niña territory. According to Climate Central and NOAA, ocean temperatures circulating in the El Niño zone are trending at record warm readings for the early part of June.

The skyrocketing ocean water temperatures are a sign that this El Niño will evolve into one of the stronger climate phases ever. NOAA recently calculated that this El Niño has a 63% chance of intensifying into what is known as a Super El Niño. This amped up El Niño could settle in by the end of the summer or the early fall.

Super El Niño events are rarer than a regular El Niño phase. There have only been five Super El Niño phases since 1950. You have to go back to 2015 - 2016 to find the last time that a Super El Niño was guiding the weather patterns.

In addition to the forecast of a Super El Niño from NOAA, the European model also predicts that this El Niño could wind up being one of the most intense and influential in recorded history. Some of the most respected ensemble forecasts suggest that the 2026 El Niño will top out with average ocean water temperatures at least 2.5 degrees above the norm by the fall or early winter. Should this jump in temperatures come to fruition, it could end up being a record-breaking El Niño.

The ocean water temperatures are not the only element signaling a historic El Niño. The surges of westerly winds whipping up near the equator in the western portion of the Pacific are pushing the warmer waters to the east. This is amplifying the rapid warming already happening in the Eastern Pacific. For instance, one of the early April bursts of westerly winds was the most potent in decades.

How El Niño Will Impact Global Weather Patterns

What is happening thousands of miles away in the equatorial Pacific may not seem consequential. However, El Niño and its counterpart La Niña typically have a great influence on the weather in all corners of the globe. The stronger that El Niño becomes, the more it will drive the weather.

For now, all eyes are on the world's oceans to see how the emergence of El Niño will impact the current tropical weather season. In general, a stronger El Niño typically translates to a weaker hurricane season in the Atlantic. The opposite is true in the Eastern Pacific, a part of the world's oceans where a stronger El Niño supports the development of a more active tropical weather season.

Looking ahead to the winter months, the subtropical branch of the jet stream generally distributes more energy during times of a strong El Niño. This results in a wetter winter for the southern tier of the U.S expanding from California through the Southeast and Florida. Conversely, the northern tier of the U.S. generally can expect a milder and drier winter when El Niño is in charge. This means a less snowy winter for the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, the Northern Plains, and the Upper Midwest.

On a global scale, temperatures will spike across the board at the hands of a fully entrenched El Niño. The extra heat circulating in the equatorial Pacific is released into the atmosphere, inherently raising temperatures. Additionally, the higher chance of drier conditions paves the way for more heating due to an abundance of sunshine.

As such, much of the world should be prepared for a warmer-than-usual summer. Climatologists have been warning for months that 2026 is likely to see a slew of new heat records thanks to the impacts of this El Niño. This will follow the trend of 2025, a year that ranked as the third-warmest in the record books globally.

We will continue to follow the progression of El Niño in the months ahead. The impacts are likely to be more severe if El Niño becomes stronger.