Rogue NASA Satellite Set to Crash to Earth Tonight: Are You at Risk?

A 1,300-pound NASA spacecraft is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere Tuesday evening after nearly 14 years in orbit, though officials say the risk to people on the ground is extremely low.

When and Where Will It Come Down?

The U.S. Space Force predicts that Van Allen Probe A will reenter the atmosphere around 7:45 pm EDT on Tuesday, March 10, though the estimate carries a plus-or-minus 24-hour uncertainty window. Because the spacecraft is traveling thousands of miles per hour and the timing remains fluid, scientists cannot pinpoint exactly where any surviving debris might land.

Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, who tracks satellites and space launches, noted that based on the latest Space Force data, the probe could already be down, or it may not reenter until late Wednesday night.

NASA and the Space Force say they will continue refining their predictions as new tracking data becomes available.