Slow Start for Tornadoes for May Forecast to Change Next Week

It has been a quiet month by May standards for tornadic activity. However, forecasters are warning that the relatively calm pattern is due for a change. Read on for all of the details.

Quiet Start to the Month of May for Tornadoes

May is typically the busiest month for tornadoes across the U.S. The year 2025 is off to a slow start with no major severe weather outbreaks over the last week. Although some pockets of thunderstorms have roamed the southern and eastern U.S. in recent days, none of the cells produced widespread tornadoes.

As of Friday morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has fielded 31 reports of tornadoes over the first week of the month. The bulk of these twisters were short-lived with little to no reports of damage.

The low tornado count thus far is a departure from the norm for the fifth month of the year. There were 530 tornadoes confirmed in May of 2024, more than twice the historical average. The record for May tornadic activity happened in 2003 when 542 tornadoes were confirmed.

You have to go back to early April to find the last major tornado outbreak in the U.S. During this time, 150 twisters spun up over a period of just six days.

Despite the slow start to the month of May, the U.S. is registering its fastest pace of confirmed twisters in 14 years. How that will turn out will largely depend on what May is able to produce.

The current period of calm conditions can be credited to a stagnant jet stream. The position and energy flowing through the jet stream dictate the chances of severe weather.

Forecasters are predicting that the slow-moving areas of low pressure hanging out in the jet stream over the next few days will continue to keep tornado outbreaks at bay. The primary impacts expected through the weekend are more garden-variety thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. The southeastern U.S. and Florida will bear the brunt of this activity for the Mother's Day weekend.

Change is on the Horizon

The period of inactivity will begin to disappear next week thanks to a southward dip in the jet stream over the western U.S. This plunge will work to bring up the warm and moist air from the Gulf, sending it up into the Plains states. The moisture-rich air will then merge with the ample amounts of energy coming down from the jet stream to support the development of thunderstorms across the nation's midsection.

It is still too early to predict with precision how next week's forecast will shake out. The early models suggest that the activity will fire up on Wednesday and linger through the next weekend. The Plains and the Midwest will be the likely targets of the widespread weather maker. Potential impacts of next week's active weather pattern include thunderstorms, high winds, hail, and tornadoes.

You can prepare for the threat of severe weather by ensuring that your phone is set up to receive notifications from the National Weather Service (NWS). Having a plan of action to seek shelter when heading outside is also a good idea when storms are in the forecast. Check back later to learn how this forecast is evolving heading into next week.

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