South-Central U.S. Prepares for More Heavy Rain and Threat of Storms

Another week of unsettled weather is on the horizon for the south-central U.S. The additional waves of moisture will amplify the already precarious flooding threat in this corner of the country. Here is what you can expect in the days ahead as the drenching storms fire up once again.

Wet Weather Pattern Returning to the South-Central U.S.

The weekend brought a nice break from the wet weather pattern for much of the south-central U.S. However, forecasters are now warning that the active weather is going to take over the region again this week, resulting in a heightened risk of flash flooding. River flooding will also be a concern as many of the region's waterways fill to capacity.

The heavy and persistent rain is forecast to take aim at a large zone of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Stream and river flooding will be the greatest concern by the middle of the week for most of the region. Some localized areas may also be dealing with the chance of severe thunderstorms.

While the onslaught of precipitation will present its own set of risks, a large swath of eastern New Mexico and southern and western portions of Texas could use the rain. According to last week's report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of this region is under the designation of extreme or exceptional drought.

How dry has it been in this part of Texas? The city of Midland has only seen a bit over a half of an inch of rainfall this year. This measurement is only about 20% of the historical average of rainfall by this time. The moisture that is expected to fall over West Texas will certainly help to chip away at the building drought. However, flooding risks will increase thanks to the dry and hard soil that will have difficulty absorbing the rain.

It is a completely different situation to the east where an excess of rain in recent weeks has triggered rapid water level rises on streams and rivers. The water from the continual rounds of rain that have impacted the Mississippi Valley over the last month is now working its way downstream into the Mississippi Delta region.

The forecast of more rain this week has put residents of eastern Texas and Louisiana on alert for flash flooding concerns. Motorists using parts of interstates 10, 20, 30, and 35 in this region will also want to be cognizant of the threat of ponding on roadways and sudden reduced visibility when the downpours hit. Cities that need to monitor the impact of stream and river flooding include Houston, New Orleans, and Baton Rouge.

Culprit of the Heavy Rain

The blame for the heavy rain can be placed on a slow-moving storm that is forecast to move to the east from the Desert Southwest to start the week. The system will pull up moisture from the Gulf as it travels in this direction, supporting the development of the rainy and stormy pattern.

The clouds and rain began entering eastern New Mexico and parts of southern Colorado late Sunday. The flow of moisture will then push eastward into Texas and Oklahoma and Monday and Tuesday.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are on tap for a large majority of the region. Localized amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely for some zones of eastern Texas, the southern edge of Louisiana, and central portions of Mississippi.

The unsettled pattern is predicted to linger through at least Thursday. The fresh batch of moisture will compound the already saturated ground across the southern and central U.S. Soil that has already taken on some much moisture will have difficulties absorbing the additional rain, creating the runoff that could trigger flooding.

Specific City Forecasts

Now let's take a look at a few individual city forecasts that are in the line of fire. Dallas is going to see the bulk of the rain fall on Tuesday. The metroplex is anticipating 1 to 2 inches of rainfall throughout the day along with winds out of the east at 10 to 15 mph. It will be an unseasonably cool day with a forecast high of just 66 degrees and overnight lows that slide to about the 60-degree mark.

It will be equally as wet to the east in Shreveport. This metro area located in far western Louisiana is forecast to see 1 to 2 inches of rain during the day Tuesday with another inch on tap overnight. Thunderstorms will be an additional concern. It will be a bit breezy with winds out of the east at 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures will not fluctuate vastly with highs of about 70 degrees and lows that bottom out in the mid 60s.

Wednesday will bring an easing of the heavy rainfall for both of these cities. However, the threat of scattered thunderstorms will persist.

Moving to the north, Oklahoma City is also predicted to see a major rain event of this weather maker. Tuesday will bring about an inch of rain to the capital city. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain a threat for the balance of the week. Cooler temperatures are also on the way for this part of the state. Oklahoma City will go from a high in the mid 70s on Monday to readings that struggle to break past the 60-degree barrier on Tuesday. Temperatures will bounce back slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, climbing into the upper 60s. More seasonable temperatures are on the docket for the weekend with highs expected to reach the upper 70s.

The Gulf Coast will also get caught up in the crosshairs of this stormy weather pattern. Houston has scattered thunderstorms in the forecast on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Like the rest of the south-central U.S., the heaviest bands of rain are expected to set up on Tuesday. Humidity levels will also build on Tuesday in Houston, raising the risk of more severe weather. Highs will bounce around in the upper 70s to low 80s during this time. It will remain moderate at night with overnight lows bottoming out in the low 70s and upper 60s.

New Orleans will begin the week on a dry note but that will all change on Tuesday when the storms fire up across the bayou. The metro area is expecting storms to first arrive on Tuesday, becoming more widespread on Wednesday and Thursday. The Crescent City is forecast to see highs reach the upper 70s all week. Wind speeds will vary with the day but it will never be particularly windy.

Meteorologists will continue to monitor the chances of river flooding this week as this will likely be the most significant concern.

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