Southeastern U.S. the Target for Surge of Tropical Moisture

A new update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is highlighting two new areas of potential development in the Atlantic basin. What are the experts watching as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches? Read on for all of the details.

Southeastern U.S. Could See Homegrown Tropical Weather Develop

It has been a relatively quiet July throughout the Atlantic tropics. You have to go back to the first weekend in July to find the last time that a named feature roamed this basin. Tropical Storm Chantal formed off the coast of the Southeast on the Fourth of July weekend, eventually making landfall in North Carolina.

This is in line with historical averages for this part of the world's oceans, as the peak activity begins to happen when the calendar flips to August. September 10 is the climatological peak of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

Sea-surface temperatures are still a few weeks away from reaching the historical high levels. That said, most parts of the basin from the coast of Africa, through the Caribbean, and into the Gulf are already measuring at or over the 80-degree threshold needed to support the formation of tropical weather.

The tranquil conditions over the last few weeks can be blamed on large areas of dry and dusty air coming from the vast Sahara Desert in Africa. Disruptive wind shear has also been able to put a lid on any features that try to come to life.

The most likely area for the next named storm to spring up will be off the northeastern corner of Florida and to the north by the Carolina coastline. The southeastern U.S. is in store for a rocky weekend of weather as a cool front pushes down from the north and stalls out. Forecasters are warning that torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms will be the story for the Southeast through the weekend and into early next week.

A surge of moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf will amplify the arrival of the cool front. The interior portions of the Carolinas, Georgia, southern Alabama, and the northern tier of Florida will see the heaviest bands of rain during the initial phases of the weather pattern.

It is not unusual for a front that stalls near the bath-water warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean to create tropical elements. These features are known as homegrown storms because they come together in close proximity to the U.S. coastline. By the latter part of the hurricane season, it is more likely to see named storms originate as tropical waves from the coast of Africa.

The most likely time frame for a homegrown storm to develop will be between Saturday and Tuesday. The latest forecast models indicate steering breezes in place over the southern Atlantic coastline will send any developing storm away from the U.S. later in the week. However, the feature could end up near Bermuda at this time.

Heavy Rain Expected Regardless of Tropical Formation

Even if a named storm does not come to fruition, the tropical moisture that fires up along the stalled frontal boundary will result in heavy rain for the zone from the southern Atlantic coast and to the northeastern Gulf Coast. This rain is predicted to impact the region into the early part of next week.

How much rain should you expect? The forecast is calling for widespread rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with the potential of locally higher amounts. Rain of this degree will naturally raise the threat of flash flooding, particularly in areas that see the torrential rain fall over a short period of time.

In addition to the significant stream of moisture, the weather pattern will also usher in the threat of isolated tornadoes and waterspouts. Beachgoers will want to be aware of the chance of rough surf conditions as the storm churns out to sea.

Forecasters are warning that road travel could be snarled across portions of Interstates 10, 20, 75, and 95. Vacationers heading to the southern Atlantic coastline will face a soggy weekend not conducive to outdoor activities.

The conditions will begin to deteriorate on Friday afternoon and evening in Tybee Island, Georgia. It will be another toasty day to bring the work week to a close with a high of 91 degrees prior to the full entrenchment of the front. Saturday morning will get off to a fiery start with scattered thunderstorms. Highs will slip back into the low to mid 80s at this time. More rain and storms will distinguish Sunday as winds pick up speed to hit 10 to 20 mph.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, will be at the heart of the activity beginning on Friday. The beach resort town should prepare for rainfall of about an inch during the day with another influx of rain expected during the overnight hours. Temperatures will fall from a high of about 90 degrees on Friday to readings that max out in the upper 70s on Saturday. Sunday is shaping up to be the breeziest day of this stretch in Myrtle Beach with winds of about 10 to 20 mph from the northeast.

The interior portions of the region will also not be spared. While it will not be as much of a washout, cities such as Atlanta and Charlotte will also be dodging scattered storms on Friday and throughout the weekend. Checking the hourly forecast will be a good strategy for those with outdoor plans during the first weekend of August.

Another Area of Concern in the Atlantic

The NHC will also keep close tabs on a zone of clouds and rain showers located thousands of miles to the southeast of the U.S. coastline. This area got its start as a tropical wave coming from Africa. Tropical waves often serve as the seeds of development for more powerful hurricanes.

At this time, forecasters believe that a high amount of wind shear surrounding this particular wave will limit its development. However, the feature could take on more defined tropical characteristics should it hold together and move into a supportive environment later next week. Floridians will want to keep an eye on this potential feature.

The latest tropical wave could also cause trouble for the Caribbean. Even if the zone of low pressure does not strengthen into a named storm, it could still translate to an increase in thunderstorms from the Leeward Islands and into Puerto Rico next week.

The next name up for the Atlantic basin this season is Dexter.

Weather changes fast — help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat.