Southern Plains and Ozarks the Target of Flash Flooding Concerns

May is going to kick off with more rain for the southern Plains and the Ozarks, continuing the trend started in the month of April. The latest influx of moisture will once again raise the threat of flooding across this part of the nation's heartland this week. Here is the latest on what residents need to be aware of as the week progresses.

Heavy Rain to Unleash Across Parts of Southern Plains and Ozarks

It has already been an exceptionally soggy month for the southern Plains and the Ozark Mountain region. Some communities have recorded two to three times the historical average of rain for April. Unfortunately for the water-logged region, more rain is on the way for a zone stretching from northern Texas and up through the western half of Arkansas and Missouri.

Rainfall will be heavy enough to trigger the chance of flash flooding along small streams and in urban areas. The Red, Arkansas, and Canadian river basins will all be under the threat of surging water levels as the new waves of moisture arrive.

The moisture machine will crank up as a frontal boundary pushes across this part of the central U.S. on Tuesday and then stalls. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are in the forecast for this area. The hardest hit areas could see rainfall of 4 to 8 inches in a period of 12 hours. Rain of this magnitude will raise the threat of flash flooding across low-lying areas and near waterways that have already struggled to keep up with the April rainfall.

Overly Saturated Grounds Will Support Flooding

Drought conditions continue to linger over the southern High Plains and into the lower Plains states. However, it has been a different spring season for the swath of land from northern Texas and into Arkansas and Missouri.

This part of the region has seen enough moisture that the soil is fully saturated. As a result, any rain that does fall in the coming days will quickly flow into smaller streams as the ground will not be able to absorb all of the precipitation.

For instance, Tulsa has recorded 7.24 inches of rain so far in April. This amount is 1.7 times the norm of 4.37 inches for the month. It has been a similar situation to the northeast in Springfield, Missouri. This city in the southwestern corner of the state has seen 10.55 inches of rain, equating to 2.25 times the historical average.

It has been even wetter in Oklahoma City. The capital city has recorded 2.5 times the historical average of rain for the month. Moving to the south, Wichita Falls, Texas, is now sitting at 7 inches of rain thus far this month, good enough for 2.8 times the norm.

Rain is also in the forecast this week for the Ohio River basin. Although localized flash, small stream, and urban flooding is a possibility in this basin, the moisture will be more sporadic in nature when compared to what is happening over the southern Plains and Ozarks.

Forecasters are also warning that severe storms will roam the region by the middle of the week. High winds, large hail, and tornadic activity are all potential impacts of these storm cells.

Specific City Forecasts

Now let's look at a few detailed city forecasts. Springfield is bracing for the storms to erupt on Tuesday. The stormy conditions will persist on Wednesday and Thursday with the greatest threats happening during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will hover in the upper 60s to low 70s during this time while lows will dip into the upper 50s. The winds will intensify as the week progresses, peaking on Thursday at speeds of 10 to 20 mph from the west-southwest.

Tuesday and Wednesday are setting up to be quite stormy in Tulsa. The metro area in the northeastern corner of the state of Oklahoma is preparing for widespread storms and heavy rain. You can expect rainfall near an inch overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday. The mercury will reach the upper 60s on both of these days before rebounding into the low 80s for a high on Thursday.

Little Rock will be on the fringe of the storms and rain on Tuesday, however, it will be a different story later in the day on Wednesday. The overnight hours will bring rainfall near an inch in this part of Arkansas. It will remain warm in this part of the region with highs bouncing around in the low to mid 80s through Thursday.

Heavy Rain Expected to Fire Up Again Next Week

Looking ahead to next week, more rain is in the long-range forecast for the south-central U.S. The latest models indicate that a storm ejecting out of the Rockies will slow down and stall when it reaches the southern and central Plains. The result will be drenching rainfall and the threat of severe weather.

Once again, the Red, Canadian, and Arkansas River basins will be under the gun for flooding. Agricultural interests in these basins may experience delays in the plowing and planting season if this heavy rainfall develops as predicted.

All of this is happening as the surge of water generated from the heavy rainfall events earlier in the month finally makes its way downstream into the lower portion of the Mississippi River. The impacts of the historic rain event that deluged the Ohio and middle Mississippi valleys in the early part of the month are now being felt in the lower portion of the delta region. Forecasters are predicting that the mighty Mississippi will reach moderate to major flood stage in early May.

Some of the ports that use the Mississippi may be forced to close for a time as the water surges. This could pose a significant disruption to shipping and barge operations along this heavily traveled river. It may take until the middle of May for the water levels to drop below flood stage up and down the Mississippi River. Another major rain event would delay this even longer.

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