Storms on Sunday to Give Way to Soaring Temperatures in Coming Days

The dog days of summer are full speed ahead as a massive heat dome begins to build over the southern half of the U.S. But in the short term, storms will support the development of heavy rain and flash flooding in several areas across the Plains, the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, and well to the east. Read on for a closer look at this blistering and volatile forecast.

Stormy Sunday on Deck for Millions

The heat is on across a massive area of the U.S. However, a stormy Sunday is up first for millions of Americans. A few different zones of volatile weather will bring the weekend to a close, raising the threat of heavy rain, gusty conditions, and flash flooding.

After an unsettled Saturday for the Midwest and the western Great Lakes, another widespread zone of storms is set to fire up near the periphery of the budding heat dome. The models indicate that several areas from the Plains to the East Coast could see severe impacts, particularly in the latter part of the day Sunday. Like Saturday, the primary concerns will be damaging wind gusts and flash flooding.

The Plains states will also be under the gun of hail beginning Sunday and lasting through the overnight hours. The highest winds are expected to whip up across the zone from southern Nebraska and to the north into Canada. Top gusts could eclipse 80 mph during the peak of the activity.

The Midwest and the Ohio Valley will be under the greatest threat of thunderstorms late Sunday and into Monday. Flash flooding will be the primary worry for much of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia due to the repeated nature of the downpours.

At least 2 inches of rain is forecast through the weekend and into the early part of the week for a wide swath of the Midwest, the Appalachians, and the mid-Atlantic. Localized rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible within this impact zone.

West Virginia is predicted to be inundated with more rain by the time Monday rolls around. The central and western portions of the Mountain State will be hit the hardest with the repetitive nature of these storms. It has already been an exceptionally wet July for this part of the Appalachians, meaning that any new rain will not be easily absorbed by the saturated ground.

For instance, Charleston, West Virginia, will once again be dodging storms as the weekend wraps up. The potential of heavy rainfall will increase the chances of flooding across the rugged terrain. Sunday's highs will max out in the mid 80s before dropping to the 70-degree mark after the sun goes down. The stormy pattern will linger into the start of the new work week before drier conditions settle over this part of Appalachia.

Heat Dome Taking Shape Over Southern U.S.

Triple-digit temperatures are bearing down across the southern U.S. in the days ahead with the core of the heat expected over the Plains states and the Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, the heat dome across the southern tier of the nation will work to provide the Northeast with frequent breaks from the soaring temperatures and stifling humidity.

Readings that top the century mark have been elusive in some parts of the southern Plains this year. For instance, the city of Wichita Falls, Texas, has yet to record a day above 100 degrees. The hottest day of the year thus far came on July 17 when the temperatures hit 98 degrees.

As the high pressure builds over the Plains, a northward bulge in the jet stream will also begin to form. These developments will pave the way for the stubborn heat dome to anchor itself over the southern U.S. Forecasters are warning that the heat dome could persist for weeks with slight variations in who sees the hottest readings from day to day.

It has been slightly cooler than usual so far in places such as Dallas. Temperatures have landed at 1.5. degrees below the norm for the month of July. As of July 17, the metroplex had yet to see readings crack the 100-degree barrier. However, the upcoming weather pattern could feature multiple days with readings that hit this benchmark.

Moving to the north, Kansas City is another metro area that has not experienced temperatures in the triple digits. Like much of the rest of the Plains, this could change in the days ahead with the likelihood of several days above the century mark.

Although the upcoming heat may be welcomed by those with access to a swimming pool or a lake, the climbing temperatures will also present their own set of risks. The areas that have been dealing with persistent rain as of late will be under the gun for steamy conditions as the moisture is drawn up into the air by the intense sunshine.

Overnight lows will also remain elevated, putting a strain on cooling systems. A large portion of the Plains will bottom out with lows in the upper 70s and low 80s for an extended time period. Moisture will also be hard to come by during this stretch.

The most humid conditions are expected in the area from Texas and into the Ozarks of Missouri and Arkansas. The recent deluge of rain in this zone will simplify the humidity as the wet soil begins to dry out. The end result will be real feel readings that hit about 110 degrees by next week.

The lack of rainfall expected in the upcoming weather pattern will translate to growing drought conditions. The drought will expand across a large portion of the central Plains in the weeks ahead with the driest conditions expected for Kansas and Nebraska.

As the moisture evaporates from the ground, the mercury will also be on an upward trajectory. The forecast is calling for widespread readings in the mid 90s to the low 100s for much of the central and southern Plains.

While the pattern will be mostly dry, an influx of tropical moisture toward the end of the month could send precipitation from the Gulf and into central and southern Texas. This line of moisture could reach as far as the Rockies and the High Plains, resulting in the chance of thunderstorms.

In addition, the zone from the central and northern Plains, to the east into the Ohio Valley, and to the south into the Southeast will also want to be aware of the threat of long-traveling thunderstorms known as derechos. These massive complexes of storms are known to cause significant wind damage as they travel for hundreds of miles on the ground.

Contrasting Situation in the Northeast

Conversely, the Northeast will enjoy less humid air and frequent waves of cooler air during the time of the year that typically sees the warmest temperatures. This unseasonably cool weather in this corner of the country can be credited to a southward dip in the jet stream across the Upper Midwest to the east.

This dip will also usher in regular frontal boundaries that support cooler and less humid air. While hot temperatures and humidity will track ahead of the fronts, the heat will not be as persistent as expected to the south.

The Northeast is not anticipating any major rain events when compared to the last several weeks. However, it is still possible that severe storms fire up on occasion. The Northeast is also not forecast to see any surges of tropical moisture coming up the Atlantic Seaboard. The dip in the jet stream will also serve to push any approaching tropical weather maker back out to sea.

The first batch of noticeably cooler air will settle into the northeastern U.S. at the beginning of the week. Temperatures will see an uptick by the end of the week before the next cooldown arrives in time for the weekend.

For example, after topping out with comfortable highs at about the 80-degree mark on Tuesday, New York City will see the mercury climb back into the mid 90s by Friday. Mother Nature will pull back on the temps again for the weekend, with Sunday's highs forecast to hover in the mid 80s.

The bottom line is that the week ahead is going to feature a roller coaster of summer weather for the eastern half of the country. We will continue to update the precise forecast as the week progresses.

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