Storms Persist Along Northern Edge of Stubborn Heat Dome

Storms are expected to continue to pop up along the northern flank of the building heat dome through the end of the weekend and into the start of the new work week. Here is a look at where to anticipate the greatest amount of storm activity in the next few days.

Storms Forecast to Develop Along Northern Fringe of Heat Dome

Thunderstorms ushering in high winds and heavy rain will be an issue in the coming days as they storm cells ride along the edge of a heat dome that is setting up across the central and eastern U.S. While the biggest story of the last week of June will be the record-breaking heat, the storms that form at the top of the high pressure system will also steal some of the headlines.

The storms will come together as a result of the cool air to the north competing with the top of the heat dome to the south. This clash of competing air temperatures will translate to stormy conditions in the Plains and the Upper Midwest. Some of the storm cells could creep into the northeastern U.S., creating what is called a "ring of fire."

The intense amount of energy circulating in the atmosphere will amplify the storms, bringing in the potential of severe impacts. In addition to the heavy rain, those in the line of fire could see frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Timing of the Storms in Greater Detail

Some storm activity rumbled through parts of the Great Lakes and the Northeast to start the weekend. For instance, storms that erupted late Friday created widespread wind damage throughout much of the Dakotas and over into northern Minnesota. Wind gusts of over 100 mph were unleashed across parts of the region, leaving thousands of people without power.

This same storm system is forecast to track to the southeast throughout upstate New York and New England into Sunday. Just as this threat eases, another area of action is forecast to ignite over the western edge of the High Plains during the back half of the weekend. While the high winds and hail are not good news for the battered region, the rain associated with the line of storms is welcome in an area still grappling with ongoing drought concerns.

Any bit of rain will help to ease some of the drought conditions. However, the repeated nature of the storms will also raise the threat of flash flooding. The stream of moisture will be particularly robust in New Mexico, as it taps into the remnants of the former Hurricane Erick. This Category 3 storm made landfall in Mexico on Thursday before moving into the southwestern U.S.

Widespread storms stretching for over 1,000 miles will impact an area from western Texas and up into the northern reaches of Minnesota on Sunday. These clusters of storms will use the heat energy to form thunderstorms packing frequent lightning strikes, large hail, and isolated tornadic activity.

Most of the storm action will stay away from the central Plains and over to the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. However, you cannot rule out the threat of a stray thunderstorm during the peak afternoon heating hours on Sunday.

Forecast for the Start of the Week

While the weekend will be mostly calm for the Midwest and the Northeast, a new threat of storms will arise as the work week begins. The risk of storms is forecast to persist in this zone through at least Wednesday for areas near the northern edge of the stubborn heat dome.

As with the previous threats, residents should be prepared for locally damaging winds, hail, and times of torrential rain. There is also the chance that some of the storms could spur a long-lived wind event known in meteorological circles as a derecho.

The highest risk on Monday and Tuesday will be in the swath of land from Nebraska and into the Great Lakes. For example, Des Moines is forecast to see storms come to life on Monday afternoon, picking up steam in the overnight hours and into Tuesday. The capital city will likely see the most severe storms on Tuesday.

After a high of about 90 degrees on Monday, Des Moines will cool down on Tuesday with a top reading in the low 80s. The mercury will inch back up into the upper 80s on Wednesday despite the threat of more storms and rain showers. Winds will also pick up on Wednesday, clocking in at speeds of 10 to 15 mph from the south-southwest.

Chicago will also be in the bullseye for storms in the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. Like the rest of the region, the temperatures will also begin to trend downward at this time. After seeing readings in the mid 90s on Monday, the Windy City will max out with a high of in the mid 80s on Tuesday. Wednesday's top readings will land at about the 80-degree threshold in Chicago.

By Wednesday, the storms will shift into the interior Northeast, the mid-Atlantic and portions of New England. For example, Pittsburgh will see the chances of thunderstorms increase on Wednesday afternoon. The forecast for the Steel City on this day is also calling for highs in the low 90s, a slight dip from earlier in the week.

The threat of flash flooding will be the greatest by the middle of the weekend due to the cumulative impact of the frequent rain events. The Corn Belt region, the Upper Midwest, and the northern tier of the Great Lakes could pick up several inches of rain through Thursday. The highest rainfall totals are expected in eastern Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, and parts of Wisconsin. In addition to raising the risk of flash flooding, the persistent rain could also create headaches for farming interests during the peak of the growing season.

The north-central U.S. will continue to see the rain through Thursday. Minneapolis is bracing for thunderstorms on Wednesday that change to straight rain the next day. The temperatures in the Twin Cities will fall steadily throughout the week, going from a forecast high of 95 degrees on Sunday to top readings of 80 degrees on Monday. The mercury will struggle to hit the 70-degree mark on Wednesday and Thursday as clouds build and rain showers develop.

The long-range forecast is still a bit unclear regarding how far east the storms will travel. An area of high pressure coming together in Canada will influence where these storms land by the middle of the week. The models indicate that a good portion of the eastern Great Lakes, the upper Ohio Valley, and the Northeast will be in the crosshairs of gusty storms through at least Wednesday or Thursday. We will continue to update this forecast as it becomes more precise.

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