The Scary Part of the 2026 Hurricane Season Isn't the Storm Count

On the surface, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season looks like nothing to worry about. The strengthening of El Niño has prompted forecasting agencies to predict a calm season when compared to historical norms. However, some climatologists are warning that the volume of storms does not always tell the whole story about the overall danger. Read on for all that you need to know about what may lie ahead as the season nears its peak.

Gap Between Overall Storm Count and Impacts to Land

Residents of the coastal U.S. breathed a sigh of relief earlier this year when all of the major forecasting agencies predicted that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would produce fewer storms than usual. For instance, the official outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast a total of 8 to 14 named storms, with only 3 to 6 of those going on to become hurricanes. For context, an average season produces 14 named storms with seven of those turning into hurricanes.

It appears as if El Niño is doing its job in keeping a lid on tropical development in this part of the world's oceans. This climate pattern typically turns up the wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, breaking storms apart before they have a chance to organize and intensify. This influence is already being seen, as wind shear levels over the Caribbean Sea are currently the highest ever recorded in the month of July. In addition, the prediction of a Super El Niño coming to fruition is becoming more certain.

Despite this optimism for a calm season, hurricane experts are now adding a caveat to these predictions. This is because storm counts do not always tell the whole story of the risks. History has shown us that Atlantic hurricane counts are generally a weak predictor of loss risk and the volume of landfalls.

For example, while 1992 generated only four hurricanes, one of those was the historic Hurricane Andrew. Compare this to the 2010 season, when there were a whopping 12 hurricanes but no landfalls in the U.S. The delta between the number of hurricanes and the overall damage and death counts is why meteorologists are warning that this is not the time to be complacent.