Tropical Activity Ramping Up Heading Into Holiday Week

The Eastern Pacific could see its sixth tropical storm of the young season while the Atlantic basin is also showing signs of activity heading into the long Fourth of July weekend. Here is the latest update on what forecasters are watching in the tropics as the month of June comes to an end and July begins.

Tropical Rainstorm Forms in the Bay of Campeche

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be keeping an eye on both the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific in the days ahead. Both basins are forecast to see an active stretch of tropical conditions that could result in impacts to land this week.

The first area of interest is in the Bay of Campeche near the eastern coast of Mexico. A tropical rainstorm formed on Saturday morning in this part of the region. Meteorologists believe that it will continue to strengthen as it churns to the northwest. There is a chance that it could develop into a tropical storm before making landfall in Mexico by the end of the weekend.

Should this come to fruition, it would be the second named feature of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The average date for the second official feature to form in the Atlantic is July 17, meaning that this development would be slightly ahead of schedule. The next name up on the list is Barry. This feature will only have a short period of time to develop; however, exceptionally warm temperatures could support its further intensification.

Even if this system does not take on formal characteristics, it will still deliver heavy rainfall across parts of eastern Mexico in the hours ahead. Flash flooding and mudslides are a possibility in the higher terrain. The rainstorm is also expected to usher in gusty winds when it comes ashore in Mexico.

Tropical Weather Risks for the Fourth of July Weekend

The system in the Bay of Campeche is not the only feature of note in the Atlantic. The NHC is also monitoring the zone near the Gulf and the Atlantic coastline for potential tropical development just in time for the extended holiday weekend. This is an area of the Atlantic that is prone to tropical development this early in the season due to its warmer sea-surface temperatures.

Meteorologists are predicting that a cold front will dip off the coast late next week, serving as a trigger for tropical activity in the eastern portion of the Gulf or off the coastline of the southeastern U.S. The cold front will encounter warm ocean water temperatures and low amounts of wind shear, supporting the potential development of a tropical system. The most likely timeframe for tropical weather to spring to life will be between July 4 and July 7.

Beachgoers will want to stay abreast of this possibility, particularly for areas in northern Florida, the Alabama and Mississippi panhandles, and along the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia. Rough surf conditions and strong rip currents could precede any tropical weather.

Update in the Eastern Pacific

The Eastern Pacific got off to a hot start this season with five named storms, including two hurricanes, already on the record books. Most recently, Hurricane Erick went through the process of rapid intensification prior to making landfall in southern Mexico as a major hurricane on June 19.

This burst of activity is forecast to continue as the calendar flips to July. The NHC is currently monitoring a tropical rainstorm spinning to the south of Mexico. This zone of rain showers and storms is forecast to evolve into a tropical storm in the coming hours. The next name up for the Eastern Pacific basin is Flossie.

The average date that the Eastern Pacific produces its sixth named storm is August 3. This puts this part of the world's oceans already well ahead of the average pace.

The latest forecast models suggest that the worst of the wind speeds with the upcoming storm will remain offshore. However, the southwestern coast of Mexico will still be under the gun for strong winds into the beginning of the week. The moisture associated with this system will also raise the risk of localized flash flooding and mudslides, particularly across the higher terrains. A storm that hugs the coastline closer will result in more impacts.

Lastly, this weather maker will also produce rough surf conditions, dangerous rip currents, and storm surge through the week for this part of the Mexico coastline. Residents and vacationers should be diligent about paying heed to all warnings.

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