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Tropical Storm Melissa Likely to Form This Week in the Caribbean

Christy Bowen

2 hours ago
A developing system in the Caribbean is showing signs of organization that could lead to the formation of Tropical Storm Melissa later this week. (NOAA/GOES-19)

It is becoming more likely that Tropical Storm Melissa will form in the Caribbean sometime this week. While the formation is looking more and more like a certainty, what is less certain is what direction this feature will take once it becomes organized. Take a look at what is happening in the tropics this week.

Invest 98L Likely to Become the Next Named Storm in the Tropics

NHC seven-day tropical weather outlook map showing a 90% formation chance for Invest 98L in the Caribbean, issued October 20, 2025.
The National Hurricane Center’s latest outlook shows a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean Sea, where Invest 98L is becoming better organized. (NOAA/NHC)

The tropics are showing no signs of quieting down heading into the end of October. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been monitoring an area of likely development in the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters believe that a named storm could come together as soon as the middle of this week. Its impacts could persist well into next week, keeping this storm at the forefront of the tropics for days to come.

The NHC has assigned this disturbance the name of Invest 98L. By identifying the disturbance as an invest, the NHC signals that it is a feature worth watching closely.  Features that take on the designation of an invest are also tracked with higher-resolution computer models that provide more precise forecasting guidance.

Invest 98L is currently packing winds of 30 to 40 mph along the northern and eastern flanks of its zone of rain showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving to the west at a speed of 15 to 20 mph. The swift forward speed is also generating its own field of wind shear that is currently suppressing its development. Wind shear works to break apart storms and keep them from intensifying.

However, forecasters are worried that the plentiful amounts of warm ocean water in this part of the Atlantic will overcome the wind shear and allow it to intensify as the week progresses. The NHC has assigned a 50% chance that this disturbance develops into a named feature in the next 48 hours. This confidence grows to 80% over the next seven days.

The invest has already generated heavy rain and windy conditions for the Leeward and Windward islands. While these impacts have started to dissipate on Monday, the islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao could begin to see the rain and winds over the next few days.

Diving Into the Potential Tracks of the Storm


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