Tropical Threats Loom as August Kicks Off: Southeast Coast on Alert

August is typically known as the month when you can expect the threat of tropical weather impacts to the U.S. to increase substantially. Right on schedule, the tropics are starting to heat up. Read on for a look at what hurricane experts are monitoring as the calendar flips from July to August.

Coast of the Southeast Put on Alert for Potential Tropical Weather

Tropical weather has been hard to come by in recent weeks throughout the Atlantic basin. Are conditions finally changing? The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring three different areas of potential development this week.

The most concerning area of potential development is happening just off the coast of the southeastern U.S. This is the same general area that saw Tropical Storm Chantal come to life in the early part of July. Similar to the conditions in July, a slow-moving front is forecast to move toward the Southeast and stall. The resulting atmospheric conditions could produce tropical activity during the first few days of August.

Amplifying the situation will be the expected absence of wind shear in the region. These disruptive breezes tend to suppress tropical development, meaning that a lack of wind will promote the intensification. As such, forecasters have assigned a chance of development between August 2 and 5. The silver lining is that any tropical feature that does come to life is likely to track away from the U.S.

Even in the absence of a named storm forming, the arrival of the front will translate to repeated rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms for much of the southern U.S. beginning this weekend and lingering into the early part of next week. The forecast impact zone will stretch from eastern Louisiana and into the eastern edge of North Carolina. The threat of flash flooding will also increase as the front stalls out and produces several rounds of precipitation.

This is peak vacation time across the coastline of the Southeast. Beachgoers will want to be aware of the threat of rough surf conditions and potentially dangerous rip currents. Be sure to pay heed to all posted warnings when visiting the area beaches.

How the Stalled Front Will Amplify the Shower and Storm Activity

Looking at a few local forecasts, you can expect the threat of storms to increase in the latter part of the day on Friday in Savannah, Georgia. The coastal city is predicted to see the storms pick up in intensity during the overnight hours and into Saturday. It could be a messy start to the weekend with widespread storms throughout the day and night.

One positive development as the storms roll through is that the mercury will begin to trend downward. For instance, after sweltering with highs in the upper 90s on Thursday and Friday, the top reading in Savannah will top out in the upper 80s on Saturday. It will be even more moderate on Sunday with a forecast high of about 84 degrees.

Residents will find a similar forecast moving to the north. Charleston, South Carolina, will also face the risk of storms increasing on Friday. The Friday forecast is calling for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, highs in the mid 90s, lows that dip to about 76 degrees, and winds that clock in at 10 to 15 mph from the southwest.

Saturday and Sunday are setting up to be particularly stormy for Charleston. Widespread storms will disrupt outdoor plans throughout the city and beyond. Like Savannah, a noticeable change in the temperatures will provide relief from the heat. Charleston will max out with a high of 86 degrees on Saturday before sliding a few more notches on Sunday.

The stalled front will mean more stormy action for the coastal Carolinas on Monday. It will also remain breezy with winds between 10 and 15 mph for most areas. The mercury will begin to climb again as the new work week starts.

The interior portions of the Southeast will dodge the worst of the impacts. Places such as Raleigh, North Carolina, will see the greatest odds of stormy conditions on Friday night. The Research Triangle will also see relief from the searing heat. After experiencing highs hovering in the mid 90s early in the week, the region will see temperatures in the mid 80s on Friday and the upper 70s on Saturday. You can expect the mercury to trend upward again beginning on Sunday.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic

The NHC is monitoring two additional areas of potential concern in the Atlantic basin. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is currently churning to the east of the Bahamas. Although wind shear is low in this part of the Caribbean, forecasters are predicting that a mass of dry air will put a lid on the development by Tuesday.

Moving farther to the east, a tropical wave that exited off the coast of Africa is moving to the west. This zone of activity is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles by the middle or latter portions of the week. The latest forecast models predict a moderate chance of further development between July 30 and August 2 as the feature journeys to the west.

Residents and tourists in the Lesser Antilles will want to keep tabs on this development. Shipping interests in the region will also want to stay abreast of the changing conditions.

There have been three named storms to roam the Atlantic basin thus far this year. This puts the pace well above average. The historical average time for the third named storm to form is in early August. The typical date for the first hurricane to form in the Atlantic is August 11. The next named storm will be called Dexter.

Our team of hurricane experts is committed to monitoring all the developments in the Atlantic to provide you with the most current forecast. Stay tuned as the tropical weather season charges toward its peak time of activity.

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