Tropical Weather Could Disrupt Holiday Plans in Florida and the Southeast

Forecasters are keeping a watchful eye on the tropical Atlantic, warning that a homegrown storm could come together near the U.S. coastline just in time for the Labor Day weekend. Here is the latest on this increasingly worrisome situation for those with beach plans in the days ahead.

Tropical Weather Danger Could be Lurking in the Gulf This Weekend

The next surge of tropical moisture could impact the Southeast and Florida heading into the long holiday weekend. It has already been a busy stretch of tropical weather as Tropical Storm Fernand is currently unleashing high surf conditions and rip currents to the coastal region of Newfoundland, Canada, this week.

Just as what was left of Fernand dissipates, another area of potential activity is keeping the meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) busy. This area of concern is developing close to the U.S. shoreline as plentiful amounts of dry and dusty air mitigate development over the central and southeastern portions of the Atlantic.

Meteorologists are also explaining that the cool water churned up from the depths of the ocean by the former Hurricane Erin has quelled development in the southwestern corner of the Atlantic. These temperatures will need to reach the threshold of 80 degrees or higher in order to support the development of the next feature in this part of the basin.

This is not the case in the Gulf, an area of the basin that currently features all of the necessary ingredients for development to take root and grow. A pronounced southward dip in the jet stream expected by the weekend will pair with the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf to lay the seeds of tropical development.

What to Expect in the Gulf in the Days Ahead

While the risk of a named feature coming to life is still low, the unsettled pattern will inevitably create a robust flow of moisture for much of the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the southeastern U.S. The moisture associated with this pattern will be sufficient to trigger urban flooding.

Places such as Tampa will see the storms move in on Saturday. The highest concentration of heavy rain and stormy conditions will be on Sunday in this part of the Florida Gulf Coast. Rain showers in the morning on Labor Day will evolve into the threat of storms by the afternoon hours.

The arrival of the clouds and more persistent moisture will bring down the mercury in Tampa. After closing out the work week with highs in the low 90s, the mercury will struggle to break out of the 80s over the weekend.

It will also be a highly unsettled weekend of weather for the Southeast coastline. For instance, Savannah, Georgia, is anticipating widespread storms on Saturday. Sunday's forecast is calling for straight rain showers and breezier conditions. You can expect highs to bounce around near the 80-degree mark over the long weekend in Savannah.

Homegrown storms of this nature are more common during the early part of the hurricane season. However, that does not mean that the development of features so close to the U.S. is unheard of, even in the latter half of the season.

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 9. This typically means that there is at least one tropical storm or hurricane roaming the basin over the Labor Day weekend.

Looking ahead to the middle of September, hurricane experts are bracing for an uptick in tropical activity due to more favorable atmospheric conditions. Increasing sea surface temperatures could also lay the groundwork for storms to go through the process of rapid intensification and become more dangerous. With the peak of the season still ahead, the threat from tropical weather is far from over.

Stay tuned as we monitor the development of a potential homegrown tropical weather event this weekend.

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