Unusually Quiet Labor Day Weekend on Deck for the Tropical Atlantic

It is shaping up to be a remarkably quiet Labor Day weekend in the tropics, a stark change from the weather activity that usually distinguishes this holiday. Where are all of the hurricanes? Here is a look at what the experts are saying.

All is Calm in the Tropics Heading Into the Labor Day Weekend

Labor Day weekend is upon us, yet the tropics are mostly calm. Forecasters are warning that while the Atlantic basin will remain docile through the holiday weekend, a ramp-up in the action is expected by the middle of September as conditions turn more favorable for development.

In a typical year, you can expect at least one tropical storm or hurricane to churn through the Atlantic over the Labor Day weekend. This is not the case this year, as meteorologists are monitoring just a few areas with a low chance of development. Last year's Labor Day holiday was also quiet; however, that season went on to produce 28 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. This included the monster Hurricane Milton, a storm that went on to reach a Category 5 status, packing sustained winds of 180 mph.

Although the basin has been free of major activity over the last week, the Atlantic is still on pace to produce the average number of tropical storms as the calendar flips to September.

Why has it been largely quiet over the last week? Forecasters are pointing to a few factors to explain the lull in activity. The strength of Hurricane Erin last week worked to churn up the water in the western Atlantic, bringing the cold water at the bottom up to the surface of the ocean. These cooler ocean water temperatures are still circulating and putting a lid on future development.

Budding tropical weather systems need sea-surface temperatures measuring at least 80 degrees to be able to take root and intensify. The current zone of cool water is suppressing development in the short term.

Additionally, a large mass of dry air across the primary development in the Atlantic is also serving as a mitigating factor. The tropical waves shooting off the coast of Africa are weakening as they encounter the swath of dry air.

The long-range forecast is predicting that another tropical wave will eject out of Africa early next week. While this wave has a low chance of development, it could break apart the dry air mass and create a pathway for development for future tropical waves.

Forecasters also note that the zone of storm activity, known in meteorological circles as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), will shift its path to the Atlantic Ocean next week. This movement will naturally lead to an increase in tropical activity the second week of September.

Current Areas of Concern