Warnings Issued for North Carolina as Hurricane Erin Grows in Size

As Erin churns in the waters off the East Coast, forecasters are growing more confident that the Outer Banks of North Carolina will bear the brunt of the impacts. This part of the southeastern coastline is bracing for coastal flooding and the potential of tropical storm-force winds. Here is the latest update on this developing situation.

Parts of Carolinas Already Experiencing Erin's Wrath

Despite not making landfall in the U.S., Hurricane Erin is already making impacts in the U.S. Erin continues to grow in size as it moves through the Caribbean to the northwest. As it grows, its wind field is also expanding. This means that you do not have to be in the direct path to feel the storm's impacts.

The exact track of Erin will determine the magnitude of the winds, waves, and storm surge. The latest forecast models indicate that the zone from the Outer Banks and up into southeastern Virginia will see the most noticeable effects. Forecasters believe that Erin's center will pass about 150 miles offshore. This distance will mean that Erin will not be a major rain event for the U.S.

The gusty conditions and massive swells generated by Erin will translate to the threat of coastal flooding, storm surge, beach erosion, and overwash. Because the Outer Banks jut out into the Atlantic, this part of the Carolinas will be particularly vulnerable to Erin's impacts.

Anticipating that Erin will have some degree of impact in eastern North Carolina, local officials called a preemptive State of Emergency for Dare County. In addition, evacuation orders have been mandated for Hatteras Island. The evacuation zone includes the communities of Hatteras, Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo, Avon, Buxton, and Frisco.

Although Erin has lost some of its initial intensity over the last few days, the system is continuing to expand over a greater part of the ocean as it goes through the cycles of eye wall replacement. The hurricane-force winds associated with Erin were stretching out for 80 miles on Tuesday. Meanwhile, tropical storm winds were expanding out about 230 miles from Erin's eye.

Some portions of the southern Atlantic coastline began to experience higher waves on Monday. These large swells are forecast to creep to the north up the coastline as the week progresses, eventually reaching New England.

Forecasters have been warning for days that dangerous rip currents will present dangers to beachgoers. Lifeguards reported performing dozens of water rescues at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, on Monday. Heading up the coastline, the popular summer beach destination of Wildwood, New Jersey, has been closed to swimmers due to the risk of rip currents. Beach officials are asking all visitors to stay on the sand until the danger passes.

These waves will continue to grow in the days ahead, pushing more of the ocean water toward the coastline. Widespread storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is on deck for eastern North Carolina, with the heart of the action expected to see surge up to 6 feet.

The Outer Banks region will experience the most dangerous storm surge, potentially hitting up to 15 feet during the height of the activity. The highest storm surge will hit early Wednesday and into Thursday. The zone from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina, is under a tropical storm watch. This includes Pamlico Sound.

Impacts to Other Parts of the U.S. and Canada

Forecasters are aligned in their predictions that rip currents and storm surge are likely to be Erin's most significant impacts. The rain coming along for the ride may also push into the interior portions of the Southeast heading into the weekend.

It is not unusual for a separate weather front to develop along the northwestern flank of a hurricane. Should this happen, the Appalachian region should prepare for the threat of heavy rain and localized flooding by the end of the week. As is typical, urban and small streams will be the most susceptible to flooding. While the rain may prove to be a nuisance, this is part of the country that could use the moisture.

Erin is forecast to pick up speed as it moves into the cooler waters of the North Atlantic Ocean. The southeastern tip of Newfoundland, Canada, is forecast to see gusty winds, rain, and rough seas late Friday and into Saturday due to Erin's proximity.

Stay tuned as we continue to monitor Erin's progression through the end of the week.

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