What Parts of the Atlantic Are Most Ripe for Early Tropical Weather

The official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season arrives this weekend. Right on time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping tabs on multiple potential zones of development near the southern U.S. and Central America. Here is a look at what the experts are monitoring as the tropical weather season gets its start.

Potential Areas of Concern in the Atlantic Basin Early in the Hurricane Season

June 1 is the start date for the Atlantic hurricane season. This date falls a few weeks after the start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The NHC has already been busy monitoring the Pacific with the odds looking good that the first tropical storm in this basin will come to life this week.

But what about the Atlantic? Although the season is just now getting underway, it is not out of the realm of possibility for a named feature to come to life during the first few weeks of June. Development during the early part of the season faces a number of mitigating impacts. These include strong wind shear, cool ocean water temperatures, and drier air. These factors tend to decrease as the season marches on, supporting more widespread tropical development.

One factor that meteorologists monitor during the early part of the season is the presence of a Central America gyre. This area of slowly spinning low pressure typically comes together over Central America, hence its name. The zone is known to produce some of the earliest storms of the season. However, the Central America gyre did not form in early May this year, leading to the absence of tropical weather development over the past month.

Another factor known to support the development of storms early in the season is lingering fronts that stall out in the Gulf, the Caribbean, or in the southwestern corner of the Atlantic Ocean. A stalled front can often produce enough moisture and upward motion to fuel tropical weather events.

The NHC will be watching an area from Florida to the Bahamas and Cuba during the first part of June for potential development. This portion of the ocean waters will be capable of generating rain showers and thunderstorms in this zone. Even if a named tropical feature does not form out of these favorable elements, the system will likely produce significant rain showers across Florida. This is good news for the drought-stricken areas of the Sunshine State.

At this point, the NHC does not expect any official tropical development. However, that could change in a hurry if the cluster of rain showers and storms develops a spin.

If that was not enough to keep forecasters busy, the long-range forecast models are indicating that the western and central portions of the Caribbean could see action a few days later. The lingering front and a swath of moisture coming together could lay the groundwork for tropical weather to form. The odds will be greater if a tropical wave comes across the Atlantic to spark the birth of a named feature. Should this development come to fruition, it would not happen until well into the first week of June.

Other than these two areas of concern, it looks to be mostly quiet in the tropical Atlantic. The latest satellite images indicate little cloud cover throughout the basin.

Where to Expect June Development

While there are some signs that the Atlantic may be ripe for tropical development, it is important to note that the average number of storms that form this time of the year is generally low. On average, you can expect a named feature to pop up in June every one to two years.

June has shown to be a more active month for tropical weather in recent years. For instance, at least two named storms have sprung to life in four of the last five Junes. The year 2022 only saw one named storm during this month. Scientists blame climate change on the higher rate of June storms over the last five years.

Storms that form in June in the tropics are most likely to roam near the coast of the Southeast, across the Gulf, and in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is because the ocean water is typically the warmest in these areas.

Despite there being a fair amount of activity in the month of June, hurricane landfalls in the U.S. are exceptionally rare. Only four hurricanes have come ashore in the continental U.S. during this month since 1950. Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was the most powerful storm to make landfall in June, hitting Louisiana as a Category 3 storm. The other three hurricanes to make a June landfall in the U.S. were Bonnie in 1986, Agnes in 1972, and Alma in 1966.

A feature does not have to develop into a hurricane to make an impact. Tropical Storm Allison made landfall near Freeport, Texas, in June of 2001. While Allison was a mere tropical storm, it caused billions of dollars of damage and loss of life in the Houston area.

You only have to go back to June of 2024 to find the last time a tropical storm caused extensive damage in the U.S. Tropical Storm Alberto initially made landfall in eastern Mexico on June 20 before moving into South Texas and unleashing up to 8 inches of rain and storm surge of up to 4 feet.

Tropical Storm Claudette triggered flash flooding and tornadoes across the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast in June of 2021. Claudette was responsible for four fatalities in Alabama, all due to flooding. In 2020, Tropical Storm Cristobal struck the northern Gulf Coast, delivering powerful winds, heavy rain, destructive storm surge, and tornadoes.

The first name up for the Atlantic basin in 2025 is Andrea, followed by Barray and Chantal.

NOAA Issues Updated Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an updated tropical weather outlook last week for the Atlantic basin. The agency is now predicting that there is a 60% chance that the basin will experience an above-average season for tropical weather.

This translates to 13 to 19 named storms to form this year. Of these numbers, up to 10 are likely to go on to become hurricanes with three to five of these becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. To put these predictions into perspective, the 2024 season saw 11 total hurricanes.

NOAA's updated outlook is still slightly lower than recent predictions issued by Colorado State University and The Weather Company. NOAA issued its updated guidance from a site in Gretna, Louisiana, to honor the 20-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina this August.

NOAA recently announced new tracking devices intended to provide better forecasting models. For instance, rapid intensification forecasts are expected to improve by 5 to 7% this season. Even the slightest bit of improvement can save countless lives, particularly when storms go through the process of rapid intensification in the period just before landfall.

The agency is also going to generate rip current forecasts for all of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts in the upcoming season. These forecasts are intended to reduce the number of casualties attributed to rip currents, regardless of whether tropical weather is present.

NOAA will also begin to include wind alerts on the cone of uncertainty to provide more granular data for those in the path. Additionally, the University of Miami will work in partnership with NOAA to send new aircraft drones and underwater gliders to gather more data and improve forecast accuracy.

A new radar attached to NOAA's Hurricane Hunters will work further to collect information on wind speeds and ocean waves. Lastly, NOAA has upgraded its ocean buoy system with more advanced instruments designed to more accurately monitor the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Climate scientists are predicting that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through the peak of the tropical weather season in September. However, the emergence of La Niña is looking more likely by the end of the season. This could translate to a longer tropical weather season.

Only time will tell how the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will pan out. Be sure to stay tuned as we continue to update the outlook throughout the next few months.

Did you find this content useful? Feel free to bookmark or to post to your timeline for reference later.