What the Increasing Chance of a Super El Niño May Mean for Everyday Life

The chances of a Super El Niño are increasing. What would this climate pattern mean for weather in the U.S. and around the world in the coming months? Here is what you need to know about this extreme climate phase.

Rare Super El Niño Chances Increasing as Ocean Waters Warm

A "Super El Niño” is defined by meteorologists as a time when temperature anomalies are greater than 2.0 degrees Celsius. This rare occurrence has only happened a few times since 1950. Forecasters began warning a few months ago that there was a possibility that this rarity would evolve in the months ahead. The latest forecast models signal that the odds of this development are increasing.

El Niño is officially in place when sea surface temperatures increase by at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average readings in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The phase develops when trade winds weaken, limiting the upwelling of cooler waters from below the surface. As a result, water temperatures at the surface begin to warm.

A new report from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) out of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put the odds of the emergence of El Niño this spring or early summer at 61%. There is a 25% chance of a very strong El Niño coming to life by the end of the year.

A super or very strong El Niño phase is in place when temperature swings exceed 2.0 degrees Celsius. You have to go back to the winter of 2015 - 2016 to find the last time that a Super El Niño drove the weather patterns around the world.

Sea surface temperatures are quickly rising in the equatorial Pacific. As such, forecasters are predicting that El Niño could become the dominant phase by June. This is notable as most El Niño phases do not usually begin until the fall season. A large swath of warming temperatures stretching from Hawaii to Baja California, Mexico, is supporting the rapid strengthening of El Niño.