When Was the Last Time the Atlantic Basin Saw a Quiet Hurricane Season?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is just one month away. Forecasters have already weighed in on their predictions that the season will be more active than usual. Should this prediction come to fruition, it will mark over 10 years since the basin has seen its last quiet hurricane season. Why is this the case?

Diving Into the Average Statistics

Over the 30-year period from 1991 through 2020, there has been an average of 14 storms that came to life in the Atlantic basin. Of those 14 named storms, seven went on to become hurricanes during the average year. Three of those hurricanes intensified to a major status of a Category 3 or higher. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), one or two major hurricanes each year have made landfall in the U.S. during that time period.

The activity has ramped up in recent years. Three of the last five seasons have seen at least 20 named storms roam the Atlantic. The year 2022 was the quietest season over the last few years, however, it still saw an average amount of activity when compared to historical standards. That season produced 14 storms that ended up with eight hurricanes. The catastrophic Category 4 Hurricane Ian made landfall on Fort Myers Beach in Florida during this year which was merely "average."

Going back to 2024, the Atlantic basin generated 18 named storms, to come in well ahead of the historical average. Five of these named tropical features went on to make landfall on U.S. soil as hurricanes. Last year's most prolific storms to impact the U.S. were Helene and Milton, happening less than two weeks apart.

The last calm hurricane season happened in 2015. El Niño was the dominating climate phase at this time, contributing to the quiet conditions in the basin. That year saw just 11 named storms. Four of those strengthened into hurricanes, but only two became a Category 3 or higher. What was most surprising about that season was that the U.S. did not see a single hurricane landfall.

Understanding the Impacts of El Niño

How does El Niño impact the activity in the Atlantic? The warming of the waters in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean during this climate phase generally leads to higher amounts of wind shear. Greater amounts of sinking air circulating across the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean pair with the wind shear to mitigate the development of tropical activity.

For instance, higher wind shear levels serve to break apart developing tropical features so that they are not able to strengthen. Hurricane experts believe that the wind shear present across the Atlantic in 2015 effectively worked to kill five budding storms during the peak of the season.

The 2015 season was a continuation of the calm period in 2014. While 2014 was able to produce six hurricanes, there were only eight total features that formed that year. This low number was the lowest for any year dating back to 1997.

The 2013 tropical weather season was also an oddity. That year experienced 14 storms to come in right at the average. However, only two of these named tropical storms went on to become hurricanes. This statistic puts 2013 tied for the fewest number of hurricanes in the satellite era that began in the mid 1960s.

Although El Niño was responsible for the quiet seasons in 2013 and 2014, hurricane experts said that the dominating pattern of dry and stable air worked to tamp down the activity during these two years. It is also important to note that while these years were quieter by the numbers, they still went on to generate three deadly storms that were catastrophic enough to warrant that their names be retired. These three names that have since been taken out of circulation were Hurricane Ingrid in 2013, Hurricane Joaquin in 2015, and Tropical Storm Erika in 2015.

Going back in history even further, the year 2009 only produced nine storms and a total of three hurricanes. A weak to moderate El Niño was in place during this season. The year 2006 was also statistically quiet when only 10 storms churned in the waters of the Atlantic following the record-breaking 2005 tropical weather season.

While the statistics are interesting to note, these are just numbers at the end of the day. All it takes is one landfall to create massive levels of destruction. This means it is important to take all tropical weather threats seriously. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor what is happening in the Atlantic basin as the official start of June 1 inches closer.

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