When Will the First Atlantic Storm Form? History Offers Clues
Christy Bowen
5 hours agoThis is the time of the year when hurricane experts begin to notice signs of life in the tropical Atlantic. What does history tell us about when to expect the first named storm of the season, as well as what the current models are picking up on in the tropics? Read on for everything that you need to know.
First Named Storms of Season Typically Form in June
We are less than one week away from the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The first storm of the season typically develops in June, according to data since the satellite era began in the mid 1960s. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) data is in line with that, noting that the first storm of the new season generally erupts by June 20.
Looking at the most recent history, 2025 saw Andrea come to life on June 23, while 2024's Alberto formed on June 17. Despite June being the formal start of the hurricane season, five of the last 12 years had a named feature develop in May. This includes a four-year run from 2018 through 2021.
Most June storms begin in either the Gulf, the extreme northwestern corner of the Caribbean Sea, or just off the Southeast coastline. These areas boast the elements conducive to early-season development. Tropical Storm Alberto formed at the edge of the southwestern Gulf in 2024. In 2025, Tropical Storm Andrea lived its short life in the North Atlantic Ocean to the east of Bermuda.
Conversely, the rest of the Atlantic basin features conditions that are hostile to tropical weather. These factors include dry air coming off the Sahara Desert, cooler ocean water temperatures, and strong wind shear.
Tropical weather experts note that an active June is not necessarily a precursor for what lies ahead at the start of the season. All of the major forecasting agencies are predicting a less active Atlantic hurricane season this time around. A strengthening El Niño and cooler ocean waters circulating between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are expected to put a lid on tropical activity in 2026.
Most recently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2026 outlook, predicting 8 to 14 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. For reference, the average season in this part of the world's ocean generates 14 named features.