Will Tammy Become This Hurricane Season's 19th Named Storm?

The National Hurricane System gives an 80% chance of Tropical Storm Tammy forming in the Atlantic Ocean in the coming days.

Where is the Storm Located?

As of 9 a.m. on October 17, 2023, the storm, currently called Invest 94L, looks like it is becoming more well-formed as thunderstorms accompanying the massive cloud cover were starting to show some curvature. It's located about halfway between the Windward Islands and the west coast of Africa.

At 1 p.m. on Tuesday, the system had sustained winds of 35 miles per hour and was approximately 1,100 miles east of the Windward Islands.

Near-gale-force winds are blowing eastward to the north of the storm, and the National Hurricane Center expects full gale force winds late morning on Wednesday and into Friday morning. A gale warning is issued when sustained winds reach 39 - 54mph.

The National Hurricane Center is putting the probability of Hurricane Tammy developing at about 80% over the next week, and a 20% likelihood of forming by Thursday night.

Upper-level winds are blowing across where the storm is trying to develop, but they are too weak to stop the storm's development.

Hurricane Tammy's Potential Path

If Hurricane Tammy develops, there are two thoughts about which path she will take. Some forecasters believe the storm will continue to struggle and move across the Northern Caribbean.

People falling into this camp believe that if Hurricane Tammy develops, she will remain extremely weak and more likely to be a tropical storm. This is the most likely prediction, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Others believe the jet stream across the Southern U.S. will scoop south, impacting the storm's formation. In that case, they think the storm will slow down drastically, making it much more robust before turning northward, missing the Caribbean and staying out at sea.

Image provided by NOAA

Will Tammy Impact the U.S.?

Regardless, the cold front across the Southern U.S. will stop the storm from approaching the Continental U.S. The cold front is bringing the coldest temperatures to Florida the sunshine state has seen in seven months.

Nonetheless, Florida state emergency officials are monitoring the situation in case it changes course.

According to the National Hurricane Center, conditions have become more favorable for a tropical storm to develop as the storm is beginning to become more organized. They expect a tropical depression to develop within the next 24 hours.

Regardless of whether Tammy develops, residents in the Lesser Antilles have been advised to prepare for strong, damaging winds. Forecasters believe the storm could produce significant rainfall in the Virgin Islands on Friday and Saturday.

If Tammy does develop, she will be the 19th named storm of the season, which runs until November 30. However, storms can develop outside the hurricane season, as Alex did in January 2016. The National Hurricane Center only has two names left - Vince and Whitney.

Hurricane Tammy may be developing in the Atlantic Ocean west of the Windward Islands, but she hasn't reached tropical storm strength just yet. Forecasters are unsure of the storm's path if she forms, with the Lesser Antilles most likely to see impact from this storm.

While Florida emergency management officials are watching the storm, it's unlikely to impact the U.S. Stay tuned for further updates as Hurricane Tammy may develop in the next two to seven days.

hurricane

Will Tammy Become This Hurricane Season's 19th Named Storm?

Where is the Storm Located?

Hurricane Tammy's Potential Path

Will Tammy Impact the U.S.?

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