Your Soggy Kentucky Derby Weekend Forecast is Here

It is no surprise to learn that it could be a wet affair for this year's Kentucky Derby. This part of the country has been inundated with heavy rain over the last several weeks with the soggy weather pattern expected to continue into the much-anticipated Derby weekend.

Unfavorable Forecast for Kentucky Derby Events

While the initial long-range forecast was more promising for pleasant conditions on Race Day Saturday, the latest predictions are trending wetter. The wet Saturday forecast will be a continuation of soggy conditions for the pre-race festivities.

The fun kicks off in Louisville at Churchill Downs on Thursday with the Thurby on Thursday event. The forecast for this day is calling for variable clouds that produce scattered thunderstorms. Forecasters are warning that some of the storm cells could pack severe impacts, including gusty winds and hail. Winds will be whipping around from the south-southwest at speeds of 10 to 20 mph while highs will hover in the mid-70s. Clouds will bring to break up overnight, ushering in a low of about 62 degrees.

The Kentucky Oaks race is scheduled for Friday at the famous race track. Friday's forecast in Louisville is predicting dry conditions early with the storm activity firing up in the afternoon and evening hours. A steady rain is expected to develop overnight. Once again, highs will be in the mid 70s before falling into the upper 50s. It will be less gusty this day when compared to Thursday with winds topping out at speeds of 5 to 10 mph from the southwest.

Race Day Forecast

The big event on Saturday is the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, set to happen at 6:57 pm ET. A cold front will arrive in this part of the south-central U.S., bringing the mercury down along with it. Saturday's forecast is predicting a high of just 65 degrees along with lows that slide into the upper 40s after the sun goes down.

Rain showers are on tap throughout the day and into the evening hours. While this weather event is not expected to produce times of heavy rainfall on Saturday, it will be difficult to predict when the rain will hit. Attendees will want to pack the appropriate rain gear.

The soggy weather will create a slower track for all of the events. This is in contrast to the last five years when drier conditions produced a faster track. You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time that the track was designated as sloppy due to rainfall amounts of about a third of an inch. It was even wetter in 2018 when over 3 inches of rain fell.

Greater Regional Forecast

Louisville is not the only part of the region expecting to have to endure another soggy string of days. More moisture is in the short-term forecast for much of the southern Plains, raising the risk of flooding for the waterlogged region.

Some areas of Oklahoma have already recorded as much as 5 inches of rain this week. The northern tier of Texas has recorded 1 to 2 inches of rain over the last few days. The latest forecast models indicate that up to a few more inches of rain are likely in the days ahead. The zone bracing for the most new moisture includes north-central and northeastern Texas, the southeastern corner of Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, and parts of northeastern Louisiana.

This is the same region that has been under the gun for immense precipitation in recent weeks. The result will be a heightened risk of flash flooding near small streams and in low-lying areas. Flooding along the tributaries leading into the Red River is also a possibility.

Thursday will bring a drier period of weather, but it will not last long. Another wave of rain is expected to dip to the southeast across the southern Plains by the end of the day and into Friday. This weather maker is likely to hit areas that dodged the heavier rain earlier in the week.

For example, after a respite from the storms on Thursday, Dallas will also be at risk of more thunderstorm development on Friday morning. Another wave of rain and storms is on the horizon for the evening hours in the metroplex. It will be noticeably cooler on Friday in Dallas with the mercury only climbing into the low 70s during the peak afternoon heating hours. This compares to highs in the mid 80s on Thursday.

Severe weather will also be a possibility in places such as Memphis. This part of the region is expecting the threat of thunderstorms to develop again on Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will slide a bit from Thursday's highs, topping out in the low 70s before dipping into the upper 50s overnight.

Looking Ahead to Next Week

Once again, conditions will dry out over the weekend, giving residents a time to breathe before the atmosphere reloads just in time for the start of the new work week. A major storm is forecast to form at the jet stream level across the Desert Southwest, eventually moving to the east and into the southern Plains and the south-central U.S.

Storms that come together in the upper levels of the atmosphere such as this are more difficult to predict this far in advance. This is because there is less data available at these levels when compared to what forecasters can use in their predictions when storms brew at ground level.

The latest data indicates that the system will anchor itself over the Southwest and feed on the moisture-rich air in the Gulf. This will translate to rain and the threat of thunderstorms for Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado over the weekend. These impacts are then anticipated to move into the western edge of the southern Plains by Monday. Downpours that persist over the same general area will trigger the threat of flooding.

Meteorologists are cautioning that up to 10 inches of cumulative rain could fall in the zone that sees heavy rain this week and next. This would be the equivalent of two to three months' of rainfall for this part of the region. The flooding rainfall will be most likely if the system stalls as it moves to the east.

The silver lining is that the upcoming rain event is predicted to train over the parts of the High Plains that are currently grappling with drought conditions.

We will continue to keep tabs on how the upper-level storm system is coming together and how this may impact the southern Plains in the coming days. Stay tuned for more information as the forecast becomes more refined.

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