Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Kansas Brace for Chance of Flash Flooding

The threat of flooding is increasing across the swath of land stretching from the eastern Rockies and to the Mississippi Valley. Read on for the details of who is at risk and the potential timing of the heavy rain.

South-Central U.S. in Line for Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns

Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kansas will be under the bullseye for torrential downpours capable of triggering flash flooding in the coming days. The line of thunderstorms is forecast to move through the southeastern corner of Kansas before moving into northeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, and the northern edge of Arkansas beginning late Wednesday. Areas that see repeated downpours will be at the greatest risk of flooding.

A mass of warm and humid air filtering up to the north from the Gulf will meet with the energy coming down from the Rockies to fuel the development of these volatile storms. The proliferation of moisture-rich air will translate to the possibility of a large amount of rain falling over a short period.

The forecast is calling for widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches. The bulk of the rain will drop in a period of less than 24 hours, amplifying the chances of flooding. The steady stream of moisture will also likely create travel disruptions across the major cities in the region.

Looking at a few individual forecasts, Wichita, Kansas, will see light rain early in the day evolve into a steadier stream of moisture by the afternoon hours. After picking up about a quarter of an inch of rain during the day, the city in the south-central part of the state will see another 1 to 2 inches overnight.

There will be little deviation in the temperatures throughout the day and night in Wichita with a high in the upper 60s and lows that slide into the mid 60s. Winds will be out of the south-southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

The rain will be lighter to the south in places such as Oklahoma City. The capital city is expecting scattered rain showers early with storms popping up in the overnight hours. It will be noticeably warmer in this part of the region with highs that inch up into the low 80s and readings that bottom out at about the 70-degree mark overnight.

Moving to the east, Fayetteville, Arkansas, is anticipating times of heavy rainfall during the day on Wednesday with a greater concentration of storms happening after the sun goes down. The heaviest rain bands will set up over the college town on Thursday with 1 to 2 inches of moisture on tap. The mercury will fall from the upper 70s for a high on Wednesday to temperatures that max out in the upper 60s on Thursday.

While the rain will be a nuisance for those with outdoor plans, the moisture is good news for the parts of the region dealing with abnormally dry or drought conditions. The problem will come if the rain falls too quickly, overwhelming drainage systems.

Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain Also Possible for the Interior West

The Plains and the Mississippi Valley will not be the only areas of the U.S. under the gun for downpours and thunderstorms this week. The interior portions of the West will also be caught in the crosshairs for inclement conditions.

Flash flooding and gusty winds could become an issue for much of New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and southwestern Montana. The arrival of the storms will also usher in a threat of frequent lightning strikes capable of starting new wildfires.

It has already been a difficult week for fire crews out West. Several large wildfires are burning in the western U.S., exacerbated by the extreme heat and lack of precipitation.

The dry and gusty weather pattern is also producing large dust clouds. This was evident on Monday when a haboob swept through the Phoenix metro area on Monday. A similar situation unfolded over the weekend when a dust storm impacted the popular Burning Man Festival in the Black Rock Desert of Nevada.

Looking ahead to the three-day holiday weekend, more storms could fire up over portions of the Rockies and the Great Basin. We will continue to update this forecast as the weekend approaches.

Weather changes fast — help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat.