Big Changes in the Weather on the Way for the Northern Plains

A recent early-season heat wave over the northern Plains sent the mercury soaring to up to 30 degrees above normal, raising the risk of wildfires throughout the region. Thankfully for crews battling these fires, relief is on the way in the form of much cooler temperatures and rain. Here is a look at the rapidly changing forecast across the north-central U.S.

Heat Easing Across the North-Central U.S.

The mercury is diving between 30 and 50 degrees across the north-central portions of the country as a new storm system pushes in from the Pacific Northwest. This is good news for crews that have been dealing with several wildfires amidst a searing heat wave.

Northern Minnesota has seen the worst of the wildfire activity this week. As of late Wednesday, the Jenkins Creek, Munger Shaw, and Camp House fires had burned about 32,000 acres with little to no containment. Over 140 structures have been lost as a result of the three major wildfires.

A strong frontal boundary is currently tracking through the region, bringing along heavy rain and noticeably cooler temperatures. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are in the forecast for the western and central portions of the Dakotas and across north-central Nebraska through Friday. The rain first started falling late Wednesday. Isolated pockets of 2 to 4 inches could also be a possibility.

While the rain is good news for the wildfires burning in the northern U.S., the presence of lightning-packed thunderstorms could potentially spark new fires. This will be a concern that local officials will be monitoring closely in the hours ahead.

The greatest risk of thunderstorms for fire-ravaged Minnesota will be on Thursday. The high winds associated with the storm activity could also work to fan the existing flames in areas that do not pick up meaningful rainfall.

The mercury will tumble as the front arrives. Temperatures that have been hovering in the 80s and 90s will be replaced with readings in the 50s. Overnight lows will slide even further, making it feel downright chilly by May standards.

The winds are forecast to ease by the end of the week, giving another boost to fire crews. While Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin are not expecting as much rain as the Dakotas and Nebraska, they can still count on general accumulations of 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch by the end of the week.

It will take much more rain to erase the abnormally dry conditions in the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. It has been an exceptionally dry spring for this corner of the country, making any precipitation welcome at this point. In addition to the lack of rainfall, the hot air and the windy conditions have exacerbated the fire risk.

Specific Forecasts

To further illustrate the point about the drastic change in the weather, let's take a look at a few specific forecasts. After seeing readings in the 90s earlier in the week, Fargo, North Dakota, will see the temperatures hover in the upper 70s on Thursday. It will be a volatile day of weather with rain showers and thunderstorms on deck. Winds will be whipping around from the southeast at 20 to 30 mph.

Fargo will see an even greater drop in the temperatures on Friday when the readings top out at about 53 degrees. The rain will linger in the morning hours as wind speeds ratchet up to 25 to 35 mph with gusts likely eclipsing 40 mph at times. Overnight lows will land in the mid 30s. The clouds will remain on Saturday with temperatures only reaching the mid 40s for a high. This will be a departure of about 50 degrees from the temperatures earlier in the week. Sunday will bring an uptick in the readings as the mercury climbs into the upper 50s.

Moving to the east into the Upper Midwest, Minneapolis will see one more toasty day on Thursday with a forecast high of 80 degrees. However, this warmth will be tempered by clouds and thunderstorm activity. The threat of storms will ease overnight in the Twin Cities. Like the rest of the region, it will be breezy with winds out of the south-southwest at 25 to 35 mph.

Overnight lows will slip into mid 50s after the sun goes down Thursday in Minneapolis and will recover slightly on Friday. The end of the work week will see temperatures only reach the upper 50s, a noticeable change from the heat wave of the past few days. While the threat of severe weather will diminish, scattered rain showers will remain over the metro area. The winds will also be a constant presence, hitting speeds of 20 to 30 mph from the southwest.

Saturday's forecast in Minneapolis is calling for cloudy skies and a high of just 50 degrees. Winds will lessen a bit, maxing out at speeds of 10 to 20 mph from the west-northwest. The next several days will bring a continuation of the cloudy and cool pattern in this part of the region.

The cooler air is already in place across Sioux Falls, South Dakota. This city is expecting a high of 63 degrees on Thursday with pervasive rain showers. The biggest weather headline in this part of the northern Plains will be the winds, clocking in at 25 to 35 mph from the west-southwest. Forecasters are cautioning that gusts could reach 50 mph at the peak of the activity.

After falling to the 50-degree mark overnight, temperatures will only inch up a few notches on Friday in Sioux Falls for a forecast high of 52 degrees. The rainy and windy conditions will linger on Friday before the sun makes an appearance on Saturday afternoon. The arrival of the sun will help to push the temperatures up over the 60-degree mark to start the weekend. The winds will ease slightly on Saturday, however, it will remain breezy.

Another storm system is setting up to push across the northern Plains at the beginning of the work week. Stay tuned as we continue to update the progression of this weather pattern.

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