Experts Warn it Could be a Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

The latest 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predictions are calling for a slightly above-average season for tropical activity. Here is a look at what the most updated predictions are saying about what the upcoming season will look like for the U.S.

Latest Predictions for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Call for Elevated Activity

The forecasters with Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company released their latest predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season last week. While the season is not expected to be as busy as the active 2024 season, it does not mean that the U.S. will not see its fair share of action. The threat of landfalls on U.S. soil still remains a bit higher than the average.

The joint forecast by these two groups predicts that 19 named features will come to life in 2025. Of these tropical storms, nine of them will go on to become hurricanes, according to the updated outlook. The experts are predicting that four of the hurricanes will reach the states of a Category 3 or higher, earning them the distinction of major hurricanes.

These numbers are above the 30-year average and are a few hurricanes short of the 11 from 2024. This outlook is also similar to another long-range forecast released earlier in the month by the tropical weather experts at Colorado State University.

The most important figure for U.S. residents is how many of these storms will actually make landfall in this country. Going back to 195, only 23% of all hurricanes that roamed the Atlantic have made a direct strike in the U.S.

However, the latest models indicate that the U.S. will see a higher number of landfalls this season. This is due to the signals that suggest that the guiding winds will steer more tropical features toward the U.S. coastline in the coming months. Last week's outlook suggests that three hurricanes will come ashore in the U.S. in 2025. This compares to 2024 in which five hurricanes made direct strikes on American soil.

Why the discrepancy between the two seasons? Ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are still trending warmer than usual. However, these waters are cooler than what they came in last year, leading the experts to believe that there will be less activity in the basin.

What is most telling is that the water temperatures in the eastern portion of the Atlantic are either at average or just below normal for this time of the year. Cooler ocean waters tend to suppress the development of tropical activity. This is especially true in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the eastern Atlantic.

The MDR is generally the part of the basin that spurs the development of storms that go on to threaten the U.S. and the Caribbean islands throughout the season. Should the cooler waters persist over the next few months, it will be more difficult for tropical weather events to gain their footing and intensify.

How La Niña's Demise Will Impact the Season

La Niña is now officially out of the picture, however, a strong El Niño has yet to develop. While there are no hard and fast rules about what each climate phase means for a hurricane season, La Niña patterns tend to produce less wind shear. This wind shear is what is responsible for breaking tropical weather features apart.

Conversely, El Niño hurricane seasons tend to generate more wind shear, which makes it more difficult for tropical weather to form and strengthen. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the current neutral conditions are likely to prevail through the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Weather experts point out that it is important to prepare for tropical weather regardless of what the long-range forecasts are predicting. All it takes is one event to cause catastrophic damage. Even the calmest hurricane seasons can produce a monster storm. Now is the time to begin your hurricane preparations if you live in an area prone to this type of activity.

Did you find this content useful? Feel free to bookmark or to post to your timeline for reference later.