Southeast Braces for Heavy Rain Capable of Producing Flooding

It was a messy day of weather across the Northeast on Thursday with multiple flash flood warnings issued across the region. Is the Southeast up next? Here is a look at the forecast for the eastern U.S. heading into the weekend.

Southeast Up Next for Stream of Moisture

The heavy rain that unleashed across the northeastern U.S. on Thursday is marching to the south. The result will be an elevated risk of flooding in the southeastern corner of the country for the first week of August and into next week.

Forecasters are detailing that several factors will support the development of persistent precipitation across the Southeast. The same weather maker that brought disruptive flooding to the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic is moving to the south.

A number of the largest metro areas on the East Coast were impacted by Thursday's flooding event. The northwestern suburbs of Baltimore, New York City, Philadelphia, and portions of Connecticut were hit particularly hard by the flooding during the afternoon and evening hours.

The line of rain is dipping to the south on Friday, bringing the risks as far as Florida. The forecast models predict that the primary zone of impact will be across the northeastern corner of Florida, southern Georgia, and the Carolinas. The bands of heavy rain will shift throughout the weekend, targeting several communities at various times.

The first batch of storms will fire up when the hot and humid air currently circulating over the Southeast will clash with the arrival of a cool front. This merger will lay the groundwork for locally severe storms as moisture from the Gulf and the Atlantic filters into the region.

The forecast for Friday afternoon and evening is calling for rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour during the peak of the activity. Rainfall rates of this magnitude will persist into Tuesday at times. It is easy to see how storm drains could be overwhelmed due to the stubborn nature of these storms.

The repeated downpours are the most likely to linger across southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Coastal communities such as Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, will be in the bullseye of the heaviest rain. Forecasters are warning that widespread rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is possible in this zone over the next few days, prompting concerns about flooding in low-lying areas.

The silver lining to the volatile forecast is that temperatures will cool down considerably as the front pushes through. Humidity levels will also be trimmed in the interior portions of the Southeast as a wedge of less humid air comes down from the Northeast. This will be a relief for major cities such as Charlotte and Atlanta after weeks of steamy conditions.

It will remain toasty in Florida. Although the triple-digit readings that some areas saw last week will not be a concern, you can expect highs to remain in the 90s over the central and southern portions of the Sunshine State through the early part of next week. For instance, theme park goers in Orlando need to prepare for the mercury to hover in the low to mid 90s for the foreseeable future.

Looking ahead to next week for the Southeast, the area of high pressure that is bringing down the temperature over the weekend in the Northeast will move off the coast of New England. This movement will create a southeasterly breeze that will dump higher humidity levels and an influx of tropical moisture across the interior Southeast.

While the interior part of the Southeast will dodge the worst of the moisture this weekend, the forecast for next week is not looking as promising. Downpours are on the horizon for the Appalachians across Georgia, the Carolinas, and as far north as interior Virginia. Once again, flash flooding concerns will keep meteorologists busy.

Update on the Tropical Atlantic

The weather in the Southeast is often influenced by what is happening in the tropical Atlantic this time of the year. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been monitoring the area near the southern Atlantic coast in recent days.

The frontal boundary dipping down from the north will interact with the cluster of tropical moisture near this coastline to potentially create a tropical depression or storm. The risk of flooding would then set up across the southern Atlantic coastline and over to the northeastern Gulf Coast.

Despite the favorable environmental conditions, the NHC believes the risk of formal tropical development at this time is still low. While the coastline could see the impacts from any tropical feature, the models indicate that the steering breezes in place will send the bulk of the moisture out to sea.

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