Hurricane Lorena Expected to Intensify as it Moves Toward Mexico

Hurricane Lorena is forecast to intensify before delivering direct impacts to Mexico. What is left of the storm is then predicted to bring rainfall to the southwestern corner of the U.S. Here is the latest on this storm that is picking up speed as it churns across the Eastern Pacific.

Where Hurricane Lorena Could be Headed

It has been a busy few days in the tropical Eastern Pacific. While Hurricane Kiko is expected to bring the potential of indirect impacts to the Hawaiian Islands by next week, Hurricane Lorena is now the storm of immediate concern.

As of the late Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Lorena is a Category 1 hurricane packing maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Lorena is moving to the northwest at a speed of 12 mph. The latest forecast models indicate that Lorena will continue to strengthen as it feasts on the exceptionally warm waters of this part of the Pacific. There is a chance that Lorena could briefly evolve into a major Category 3 hurricane before it weakens.

The precise track of Lorena over the next several hours will drive the potential impacts to Mexico and the U.S. For instance, the steering currents present on Friday will influence whether the storm comes ashore in Mexico's Baja Peninsula. There is still a chance that the currents could change and steer Lorena away from this popular vacation destination.

The west coast of Baja California Sur, stretching from Sante Fe to Punta Abreojos, is forecast to be under the gun for rough surf conditions and dangerous seas through at least Saturday. Widespread power outages and life-threatening flooding are both possibilities.

Cities in the potential impact zone on the Baja Peninsula include Cabo San Lucas, San José del Cabo, La Paz, and San Carlos. The impacts will move from south to north on Friday. By Saturday, communities such as Santa Rosalia and Hermosillo are forecast to be in Lorena's crosshairs.

Storm surge and coastal flooding are something to watch for if Lorena moves directly onshore. This would happen on Friday near Lorena's eyewall.

Looking at the rest of the Pacific, forecasters are putting Hawaii on alert as Hurricane Kiko continues to grow. This weather maker could result in impacts to the island chain by the middle of next week.

It is likely that Lorena will move into southern Arizona after it makes its journey inland through Mexico. This will result in heavy rain for this part of the Southwest. The southern fringe of New Mexico and western Texas will also likely see the rain associated with Lorena's remnants.

Meteorologists also note that there is a chance that Lorena will remain offshore and slow its forward speed when it reaches the coastline of western Mexico. Should this happen, the storm would quickly lose its wind power and organization as it reaches the cooler waters of the Pacific.

A track that takes Lorena inland into Mexico will translate to the threat of flash flooding for portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. This threat would increase this weekend and into the early part of next week.