Is Tropical Activity Finally Firing Up Across the Atlantic Ocean?

It has been an eerily quiet start to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. However, things may be changing soon as the basin is starting to show signs of tropical activity. Here is a look at what is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean.

Atlantic Basin First Named Storm Featured This Week

The first named tropical storm in the Atlantic came to life this week as a rainstorm showed signs it may organize and intensify. A small cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms is coming together in the central portion of the Atlantic.

The activity is currently spinning several hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. The cluster is still too far away to send any waves over to Bermuda. However, the growing feature could impact shipping interests in this part of the Atlantic. Cruise ships may also need to take action to avoid the inclement conditions.

Some degree of disruptive wind shear heading toward the area is likely to prevent the system from developing into anything greater than a tropical storm. The wind shear could also work to prevent the system from lingering for a long time, even if it does develop into a named feature by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Tropical Storm Andrea is the first named storm for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the second name on the predetermined list is Barry. At this time, forecasters do not expect any additional tropical development over the next week.

While there is another zone of showers and storms expected to track through the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days, the NHC does not anticipate this system to take on defined tropical characteristics worthy of a name.

An area of low pressure could also develop in the northeastern Gulf and toward the southern Atlantic coast by the end of June. Forecasters will continue to monitor this zone of potential development and update interests in the area accordingly.

What to Expect Across the Atlantic in Months Ahead

Although the Atlantic tropical weather season is off to a slow start, the activity is predicted to pick up later in the summer. Most predictions signal that the season will produce a slightly above average number of named storms.

Ocean water temperatures are currently cooler than the average in the Caribbean and over into the south-central and southeastern Atlantic. Conversely, temperatures are running above the historical average for this time of the year in the northeastern corner of the Gulf and in the area just off of the East Coast. Tropical weather during the months of June and July is the most likely in areas just off the coast of the U.S. This is because water temperatures tend to run warmer near the coastline.

These water temperature readings are important as they can dictate the likelihood of tropical weather development. Warmer water temperatures are more supportive of tropical weather chances while cooler waters are a prohibitive factor.

Why the Southern Atlantic Does Not See Tropical Action

With all eyes on the central portion of the Atlantic this week, it begs the question, "why does the South Atlantic never see tropical activity?" There are two key meteorological factors that mitigate the odds of tropical storms forming off the coastline of South America.

The first reason is that the ocean waters are simply too cold in this area of the basin. The Peru Current that churns in the southeastern Pacific Ocean works to send cold water to the north along the west coast, preventing the development of tropical storms and hurricanes. It is widely recognized that ocean water temperatures need to be at least 79 degrees to support the development of tropical activity.

The second reason is that wind shear tends to be stronger in this part of the hemisphere. Wind shear levels run significantly higher in the Southern Hemisphere when compared to its counterpart to the north as a result of a more substantial temperature gradient. The waters off the coast of Brazil in the Southern Atlantic are not quite as chilly, however, the wind shear is still too powerful to support tropical weather development.

Hurricane experts also note that the train of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa is also nonexistent in the southern Atlantic when compared to areas to the north. These tropical waves are what often go on to become an officially named feature.

History of Tropical Weather in the South Atlantic

There has only been one known hurricane to roam the South Atlantic. This happened in 2004 when a storm came together off the coast of Brazil. Known by locals as Catarina, the storm came ashore in the northeastern corner of Rio Grande do Sul, packing winds of 100 mph. Three fatalities were blamed on this storm.

According to the NHC, there have only been two additional unnamed features to track through the southern Atlantic. These happened in 2010 and 2011. It is also important to note that there could have been storms that formed in this part of the world's oceans before records were kept.

Additionally, the NHC only recognizes features with defined tropical characteristics. There have been a handful of subtropical storms that have formed and moved through the South Atlantic over the years. For instance, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center's Marine Meteorological Service (HCMM) tags subtropical storms that come to life off of the Brazilian coastline. However, the criteria for naming storms by this agency are not as strict as the rules employed by the NHC.

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