Lessons Learned from the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Every year, experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) spend time going over the metrics and details from the previous tropical weather season. The goal of the post-season deep dive is to learn from the past to better prepare for what the future may have in store. Here are a few of the key takeaways from the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Water Continues to be the Deadliest Element of Tropical Weather Events

While tropical weather models single out wind speeds when categorizing the expected intensity of an event, it is actually the associated water that is the deadliest element of the storm. The NHC details that 95% of all fatalities attributed to tropical weather in the U.S. in recent years have come at the hands of flooding rainfall, rip currents, rough surf conditions, and storm surge. This figure comes from statistics gathered between 2013 and 2023.

The year 2024 continued with this trendline. Water was blamed for 127 of the U.S. fatalities connected to hurricanes last year. Hurricane Helene's torrential rain was responsible for 95 of these fatalities.

Helene also demonstrated that the threat of surging water and heavy rainfall can happen hundreds of miles from the point of landfall. This storm made its landfall as a Category 4 monster in the Big Bend region of Florida. However, all of the deaths as a result of storm surge happened well to the south near Tampa Bay. The overwhelming majority of total deaths from Helene happened in North Carolina and Tennessee as the long-lived storm chugged inland.

The big takeaway from Helene that will be applied to the future is that there is no direct link between where the worst of the storm surge and rainfall will happen and where the storm makes its initial landfall.

Do Not Discount the Power of Tornadoes

Tornadoes are a threat often overlooked during times of tropical weather. The year 2024 was a good reminder that the twisters generated by tropical storms and hurricanes can deliver some of the greatest dangers.

Last year was a prolific year for tornadoes produced by tropical weather, with the third-most in recorded history. There were a total 185 tornadoes produced by Beryl, Debbie, Helene, and Milton. You have to go back to 2004 and 2005 to find a tropical weather season that saw more tornadoes as a result of hurricanes.

Not surprisingly, 2024 also ranked high in tornado fatalities during tropical weather events. The death toll ended up at 10, coming in second place behind the year 2004.

What made 2024 so unusual is that six of the hurricane-generated tornadoes were rated EF3 over the course of four storms. The bulk of tornadoes from tropical weather events tend to be weaker in nature, generally measuring as EF0 or EF1 twisters as defined by the Enhanced Fujita Scale.

One of the most dangerous aspects of hurricane-generated tornadoes is that the twisters are most likely to spin up long before the storm makes its landfall. This means that many residents are still busy making preparations to evacuate or ride out the storm when the tornadoes arrive.

Deadly Winds Can Expand Inland

Just as the water associated with the tropical weather event can expand far inland, the same is true of the high winds. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season saw 79 wind fatalities, the most in one year dating back to 1963. Hurricane Helene was responsible for 62 of these deaths with most of these tragedies happening in Georgia and South Carolina, well inland from the point of landfall in Florida.

In addition to the sustained wind measurements, the overall forward speed of the storm is also predictive of how deadly it may turn. Helene was moving inland at a speed of 28 mph as it unleashed its wrath. This speed was about twice what is generally clocked in storms that came onshore on the Gulf Coast.

Meteorologists have long known that the damaging wind gusts of a tropical weather event can spread farther if it is moving at a faster clip. Helene reinforced this point as it was still producing wind gusts of up to 100 mph in Augusta, Georgia, as well as in the higher terrains of western North Carolina.

Scientists Getting Better at Forecasting Rapid Intensification

One silver lining that emerged during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is that the NHC got better at forecasting rapid intensification. There were 34 instances of a feature going through the process of rapid intensification last year in the Atlantic basin. This number is almost twice the historical average for one season.

Rapid intensification is defined as a storm that experiences an increase of at least 35 mph in wind intensity in a period of 24 hours or less. This process can happen several times in the same storm. Rapid intensification can be particularly dangerous when it happens close to the shoreline.

While it is true that storms are indeed seeing this happen more frequently due to the warmer ocean waters that support this development, it is also true that forecasters simply have better tools now to help them identify when this is happening or when a storm is at risk of seeing the intensification occur.

Surprise Storms Can Still Pop Up

Despite all of the technological advances made over the last several years in forecasting storms, it is still important to remember that unexpected tropical features can still erupt seemingly out of nowhere. This fact was demonstrated in 2024 when Hurricane Oscar slammed into Grand Turk Island as a Category 1 storm just 24 hours after it was first designated as a tropical storm. Oscar then hit Cuba as a hurricane one day later.

Forecasters had rightfully been sleeping on Oscar in the early stages as there were few signs that it would be able to find the supportive environment needed to form. Oscar was also a small storm in size, making it more challenging for forecasters to hone in on the chances of development. The story of Oscar highlights the importance of being ready for anything during the tropical weather season.

Importance of Forecast Consistency

Although predicting tropical weather events is not an exact science, experts can make it more predictable by being consistent with their modeling techniques. The NHC is known for being extremely consistent in how it pulls data from models to make its predictions. Meteorologists caution against changing the forecast with each whim of a slightly different model run.

The constant flip-flopping with each run can lead people to lose trust in what the models are predicting over time. The volatility of the 2024 season added more support to the importance of following the long-term trends rather than keying in on small wobbles that show up on the models.

All of these lessons will be used in the months to come as the NHC begins churning out tropical weather alerts as needed.

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