Summer 2026 Forecast: Heat, Severe Storms, and El Niño to Drive Extremes

The onset and intensification of the El Niño climate phase will be the guiding force behind the summer weather trends across the U.S. in the months ahead. What parts of the country will see the hottest weather when compared to averages, and where will severe weather and flooding be the most persistent concerns? Read on for a detailed look at the long-range summer forecast.

What Parts of the U.S. Will Sizzle This Summer

Brace yourself for high energy bills this summer. The latest long-range forecast models suggest that it will be a sizzler of a summer for much of the U.S. Almost no areas are forecast to see temperatures land below the historical average this year. The widespread heat will naturally drive up energy demands, leading to noticeably higher electric bills.

The greatest departure from seasonal averages will be in the western third of the country. Wyoming, Montana, Nevada, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and California are all expected to be sweating it out more than usual this summer. The heat will pair with increasing drought conditions to raise the risk of wildfires in this part of the country.