Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast on Alert for Tropical Weather

Rising ocean water temperatures in the eastern Gulf and along the southern Atlantic coastline could support the development of the third named tropical feature of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Here is a look at what forecasters are concerned about over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

Holiday Plans Could be Threatened by Tropical Weather

Vacationers hoping to catch some sun at the beach in the Southeast may be dodging tropical weather impacts instead. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to grow more concerned about the prospect of tropical weather in this part in this part of the basin in the days ahead. All of this is happening in the Atlantic as the Eastern Pacific basin continues to produce named storms ahead of the average pace.

Even if a tropical depression or storm does not develop in the Atlantic, beachgoers should be ready for increasing amounts of moisture as the week progresses. Rough surf conditions could also present dangers for swimmers beginning on the holiday.

As expected, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to come together across the southeastern U.S. later in the week. This is a signal that tropical weather development could be imminent.

As the air pressure begins to fall, rain showers and thunderstorms will congregate in a zone from the eastern Gulf and to the southern Atlantic. This will impact the Gulf Coast and the Southeast.

Tropical development chances will be greater if a more concentrated low forms within this area. This is particularly true if the low generates around one of the clusters of thunderstorms.

Because of the uncertainty surrounding where the low might set up, the NHC is monitoring the entire area from the northeastern corner of the Gulf to the southern Atlantic coast. The latest forecast models indicate that the development window is most likely to form around the Fourth of July and into early next week. While tropical weather is possible anywhere in this region, the odds are the highest along the southern Atlantic coast compared to the northeast Gulf. However, that could change in the hours ahead.

Forecasters may decide to designate the cluster of storms an official tropical rainstorm in order to provide advance tracking information. This designation could happen even if wind speeds do not increase.

A tropical depression is used to define a cluster of rain showers and storms that generate winds ranging between 35 and 38 mph. The water temperatures are sufficiently warm in this part of the basin to support and sustain tropical development.

History of Tropical Weather in the Atlantic This Season

There have been two named storms to roam the Atlantic thus far this season. Tropical Storm Andrea is the first to come alive in the waters a few hundred miles from Bermuda. This feature did not last long, nor did it deliver any significant impacts to land.

Shortly after Andrea's demise, Tropical Storm Barry formed during the last weekend in June in the southwestern corner of the Gulf. Barry only lived for a few hours before it came ashore in southeastern Mexico and lost its punch.

The NHC is warning that this potential area of development later this week could deliver the first meaningful impacts to the U.S. mainland this season. Chantal is the next name up on the list for tropical features for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

While the Atlantic season officially began on June 1, it is not unusual for the activity to be slow to get started. Ocean waters in the basin have not yet reached the peak readings, reducing the odds of development as a whole. In addition, large areas of dry and dusty air coming over from Africa are also still inhibiting tropical formations.

The long-range tropical weather forecast is still predicting up to 16 more named storms by the time that the season concludes at the end of November.

Update on the Eastern Pacific

The opposite situation is unfolding in the Eastern Pacific, where activity is running high for this point in the season. The sixth named storm is currently roaming this part of the world's oceans. This is well ahead of the normal pace for this basin. You usually do not expect the sixth storm to form until the beginning of August.

Hurricane Erick has been the strongest storm in the Eastern Pacific this year, peaking at a Category 4 storm with top wind speeds of 145 mph. Hurricane Flossie is the current storm still churning through the Pacific, forming on Sunday evening off of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Flossie is moving to the northwest, running parallel to the Mexican coastline.

The latest update has Flossie as a Category 3 storm after going through the process of rapid intensification. While the eye of the storm is projected to remain offshore, ample moisture and winds will impact the Pacific coastline of Mexico in the hours and days ahead.

There is a chance that Flossie could survive and move ashore across the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The hardest hit parts of Mexico could see up to 14 inches, enough to create flash flooding and mudslide concerns.

In addition to Flossie's wrath, meteorologists are also keeping an eye on the potential of another tropical weather event to form off the Pacific coasts of southern Mexico and Central America. The next name up for the Eastern Pacific is Gil.

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