The “God of Chaos” Asteroid Is Coming — Here’s What to Know

Three years from now, on the evening of Friday, April 13, 2029, a rocky object the size of the Empire State Building will pass between Earth and its own ring of communication satellites, close enough to see from three continents with no equipment whatsoever. No asteroid this large has ever passed this close to our planet in recorded human history. Its name is Apophis, borrowed from the ancient Egyptian god of chaos and destruction, and while scientists have confirmed it poses no threat to Earth, the event itself will stand as one of the most remarkable astronomical moments anyone alive today will ever get to witness.

How a 2.7% Chance of Impact Became Zero

When astronomers Roy Tucker, David Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi first detected Apophis at the Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona on June 19, 2004, early data calculations were alarming. Initial modeling suggested a 2.7 percent probability of collision with Earth in 2029, enough to push the asteroid to a Level 4 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, the highest rating ever assigned to any known object. The international scientific community responded immediately.

Years of follow-up work using optical telescopes and ground-based radar steadily refined the picture. By March 2021, combined radar observations from NASA's Goldstone facility in California and the Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia pinned down the asteroid's position to within a margin of just a few kilometers. According to NASA's Apophis fact sheet, the conclusion was unambiguous: there is no risk of Apophis impacting Earth for at least the next 100 years. The European Space Agency removed it from its planetary risk list on March 26, 2021.

Just How Close Is Close?