What Does the Likely Return of El Niño Mean for the Long-Range Forecast?

The latest climate update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is signaling an end to La Niña. What does the demise of this climate phase mean for the upcoming spring and hurricane season? Here is what you need to know.

NOAA Predicts Emergence of El Niño, Changing Weather Patterns

Things are changing in the equatorial Pacific, resulting in a shift in the weather patterns all the way in the U.S. NOAA released a climate update last week, noting the gradual end to La Niña in the coming weeks. In addition, NOAA is now predicting a better than 50% chance that El Niño will return by the fall season, greatly influencing how the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season unfolds.

Scientists at NOAA spend a great deal of time and effort monitoring the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Warmer waters mean that there is an increasing chance of neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions by this spring. The latest report indicates that the current La Niña phase is nearing its peak. While this La Niña has not been particularly strong, it has exerted enough of an influence to drive weather patterns over the last few months across the U.S. and Canada.