Hurricane Season Starts May 15: How El Niño Will Fuel Activity in the Pacific

Ready or not, the Pacific hurricane season is about to be officially underway. Read on for what meteorologists expect in this corner of the world's ocean this season, what type of influence an emerging El Niño will exert, and how these factors will translate to impacts in the U.S. and Mexico.

Powerful El Niño Could Translate to Busy Hurricane Season in the Pacific

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on Friday, May 15. Tropical weather experts are warning that the emergence of a potent El Niño could mean a busy season for this part of the basin. While the guiding force of El Niño may limit activity in the Atlantic Ocean, it could be a different story for the Pacific. Parts of Mexico, Southern California, and Hawaii could pay the price.

The latest long-range forecast models suggest that the Eastern and Central Pacific will generate an above-average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes this season. The warmer waters that come as a result of El Niño will largely be responsible for the expected surge in activity. This is in contrast to the Atlantic basin, where forecasters are predicting that the volume of tropical activity will come in below the historical average.

The Hawaiian islands could take the brunt of the greater degree of action in the tropics in the Eastern Pacific. This chain of islands is still recovering from the flash flooding impacts unleashed by back-to-back Kona Low storms that struck the state in March. The total economic losses and damage blamed on the flooding are estimated to be about $2 billion, speaking to the severity of the impacts.

Experts at forecasting agency AccuWeather predict that the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season will produce 17 to 22 named storms. Of these, 9 to 13 will go on to become hurricanes, with 4 to 8 evolving into major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) defines a major hurricane as a storm that reaches a Category 3 or higher. The forecast also predicts that the tropical weather in this basin will result in 6 to 9 direct impacts in Mexico or Central America.

Moving over into the Central Pacific, AccuWeather forecasts that this part of the ocean will see 4 to 7 named storms this season. This will translate to roughly 2 to 4 hurricanes, with 1 to 3 of them going on to become major hurricanes. Hawaii is expected to be in the crosshairs of 1 to 2 of these events. The Central Pacific hurricane season officially begins on June 1.

Climatologists have been warning for weeks that there is an increasing likelihood that El Niño will evolve into what is known as a Super El Niño. This development would mean a higher chance of late-season tropical weather action in October and November across the Pacific.