Regardless of What Phil Says, This is What You Should Expect After Groundhog Day
Christy Bowen
3 hours agoThe world's most famous groundhog emerged Monday from his underground home to make his prediction about how much longer winter will stick around. According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Phil saw his shadow, signaling six more weeks of winter.
Despite what Punxsutawney Phil may say about the expected arrival of spring, the historical meteorological data provides a more accurate picture of how much cold and snow are still in store after February 2. Read on for what history tells us about how much of the winter elements are still left after Groundhog Day.
What History Says About Chances of Snow After Groundhog Day
You are not alone if you are anxiously awaiting the start of the spring season. This year's winter has been especially rough for much of the eastern U.S., punctuated by yet another major winter weather event this weekend. With the arrival of Groundhog Day, it is natural to begin to wonder when spring may make an appearance in your neck of the woods.
The official beginning of the meteorological spring is Sunday, March 1. The astronomical spring does not begin until Friday, March 20. However, these confirmed dates do not mean anything to Mother Nature. The best way to predict when spring will settle across the U.S. is to take a look back at the historical averages for each region of the nation.
According to the Midwest Regional Climate Center, most areas across the northern and western U.S. pick up 10 or more inches of snow between February 3 and the end of spring. These numbers rely on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 30-year averages spanning the years 1991 and 2020.
The NOAA data reveal that approximately 25% to 55% of the total snowfall for the season falls after Groundhog Day in the Midwest, the West, the Northeast, and Alaska. This means that these areas still have plenty of chances for the flakes to fly throughout February and beyond.
In fact, 17 of the 25 major cities in the northern U.S. studied can anticipate picking up another foot or more of snow after February 2. This includes Boston coming in with 23.9 inches after this date, Denver at 23.4 inches, Pittsburgh with 19.4 inches, Detroit at 19.3 inches, Salt Lake City with 18.9, Chicago at 16.6, and New York City notching an average of 14.7 inches of the white stuff after February 2.
There are also a handful of cities that average at least 2 feet of additional snow after February 2. These snowy metro areas include Tahoe City, California, with a whopping 90.3 inches of snow still to go on average after February 2, and Marquette, Michigan, sitting at 82.4 inches. Other heavy-hitters for snow post-Groundhog Day are Flagstaff, Arizona, with 39.7 inches, Buffalo, New York, at 33.2 inches, Billings, Montana, with 31.9 inches, and Anchorage, Alaska, clocking in at 27.7 inches.
Four of the seven metro areas that historically see the highest percentage of snow after February 2 are located along the Interstate 95 corridor in the northeastern corner of the country. This is not surprising, as the Northeast is most likely to see its strongest snowstorms in February and into March.